The Houston Rockets and Los Angeles Lakers open their Western Conference semifinal Friday, in clash of contrasting styles.
Houston plays small-ball with nothing but flashing greens from beyond the arc. Los Angeles relies on the dominant combo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis to intimidate the interior. With the Rockets coming off a grueling seven-game set with Oklahoma City, the NBA betting odds have L.A. as a 7-point favorite in Game 1.
These are our best NBA free picks and predictions for Rockets vs. Lakers on September 4.
Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers betting preview
NBA Odds to Win Series
Houston: +450
Los Angeles: -600
Injuries
Houston: Luc Mbah a Moute SF (out)
Los Angeles: Dion Waiters SG (questionable)
Find our latest NBA injury reports for every game.
Betting Trend to Know
The Under is 10-2 in Rockets’ last 12 games playing on one day’s rest. Find more NBA betting trends for Rockets vs. Lakers.
Against the spread pick
The Rockets were pegged as the Lakers’ kryptonite before the postseason even began. The equation was simple enough: Houston hits a butt-ton of triples and the Lakers don’t. But Oklahoma City threw a wrench in that theory, proving the Rockets’ high-octane attack could be slowed and even stopped at times.
The Lakers leaned on their defense to get past the Portland Trail Blazers, who provided a similar challenge for L.A. due to their abundance of 3-point shooting. But Los Angeles prevailed and wore down the Blazers to the point of breaking.
The Rockets’ advantages are that outside prowess and the speed of their smaller rotation, which can push the tempo and beat a lumbering Lakers lineup – which runs amongst the tallest in the league – down the floor. But the legs for that game plan aren’t going to be there in Game 1, with Houston getting one day’s rest and the Lakers enjoying some much-needed downtime since August 29.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles -7 (-110)
Over/Under pick
In the end, it was defense that won the day for the Rockets. James Harden blocked a would-be game-winner in the final seconds of Game 7 and Houston checked an offense-challenged OKC Thunder squad to 104 points on 43 percent shooting per contest in Round 1.
The Rockets are going to struggle to contain L.A. inside and the best course of action for the Lakers is to milk the shot clock and toss it in to Davis, exploiting Houston’s lack of a center while also limiting the number of possessions the Rockets get to do damage.
Houston’s shooting could flush that strategy down the toilet if it gets hot from beyond the arc, but with heavy legs leaving shots short in Game 1, we’re going below the total Friday night.
PREDICTION: Under 226.5 (-110)
Player prop pick
Davis is going to be the focal point of the Lakers’ attack and draw a buzzing hornet’s nest of defenders every time he touches the ball in the paint.
The Rockets have plenty of defenders with quick hands and top the playoffs with 9.3 steals per game while forcing an average of 17 turnovers per contest – another postseason best.
Davis is usually very careful with the basketball and has recorded two or more turnovers just six times since entering the bubble, but did cough up seven turnovers when the Lakers played a half-assed game against the Rockets in the seeding schedule.
With the amount of touches AD will get in Game 1, the law of averages will take over.
PREDICTION: Anthony Davis Over 2.5 turnovers (+129)
Rockets vs Lakers Betting Card
- Los Angeles -7 (-110)
- Under 226.5 (-110)
- Anthony Davis Over 2.5 turnovers (+129)
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