Whoa, we’re halfway there.
Wednesday’s NBA Playoffs schedule may not have you “living on a prayer” this Hump Day but you will be living on your couch with two exciting Game 5 showdowns tonight.
The Houston Rockets are trying to hold on to what they’ve got at home to the Golden State Warriors while the Minnesota Timberwolves give it a shot on the road with the Los Angeles Lakers on the ropes.
So, take my hand, we’ll make some profits (I swear) with my best NBA picks and prop predictions for April 30.
Best NBA player props today
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VanVleet o4.5 asts (-115) -
Hield o9.5 pts (-120) -
DiVincenzo o9.5 pts (-120)
NBA player props for April 30
Fred VanVleet Over 4.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
I backed this prop in Game 4 and the Houston Rockets' veteran point guard came up with six assists across 40 minutes, despite playing more a scoring role than a playmaker.
Fred VanVleet shot the ball 13 times, including making 8 of 12 3-pointers, and scored 25 points. He only had six potential assists on the night and his teammates cashed in all six set-ups.
For the series, VanVleet is generating 8.3 potential assists per contest with 4.5 of those actually converted into buckets. Tonight’s player projections are bullish on his passing prowess, with assist projections ranging from 5.0 to 8.2 dimes.
My number for VanVleet is more tempered but still well above the 4.5-assist total, sitting at 6.3 helpers. That forecast should have the Over 4.5 assists priced around -290 instead of the -115 juice on this result.
The Rockets do get to come back home for Game 5, which should help Houston’s ice-cold shooters warm up in the friendly confines of Toyota Center. Houston has shot just 43% from the field in the past four games, averaging just over 98 points. Any improvement will help VanVleet’s potential assists make it to the box score.
Buddy Hield Over 9.5 points (-120 at bet365)
If keeping track of Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler wasn’t enough, the Rockets now have to worry about Buddy Hield heating up.
The Golden State Warriors guard has erupted the past two games, shooting a collective 12-for-28 from the floor (8-for-20 from 3-point range) and scoring 17 and 15 points in Golden State’s respective victories.
Hield has logged 29 and 30 minutes, respectively, in those outings after playing a combined 29 minutes in the first two games of the series. Hield, known more for his scoring, is earning extra run due to his efforts on the defensive end as well.
With the Rockets’ defense stretched between Curry and Butler, Hield has feasted on space. Over the past two games, he’s averaged 4.5 field goal attempts in which the closest defender was between four and six feet away and 6.0 shots in which the closest defender was more than six feet away.
Game 5 projections are confident Hield can stay hot as the series heads back to Houston. Models range from 10.6 to as high as 12.4 points, all of which sit comfortably above his scoring prop of 9.5 points. My number is just north of 11 points and the Over 9.5 has been run up to as high as -135 at sharper books.
Donte DiVincenzo Over 9.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Donte DiVincenzo has been much more active as a shooter the past two games. The Timberwolves’ reserve guard has fired up a combined 24 shots, compared to only 13 total field goal attempts in the opening two contests.
Granted, he hasn’t been spot-on with that accelerated offense. DiVincenzo is 7-for-24, including a 3-for-12 success rate from 3-point range in that span. He’s put up scores of eight and 10 points, respectively, but the potential for more is there.
DiVincenzo is logging major work off the bench, getting 29 minutes in Game 3 and 31 minutes in Game 4 while providing excellent two-way play. Game 5 forecasts call for more from the pesky shooting guard, with his scoring output pegged between nine and 12 points tonight.
Tonight’s points prop is down from the 10.5-point total in Game 4 and on the low end compared to DiVincenzo’s recent prop numbers (most between 10.5 and 11.5). My projection is just shy of 11 points, and some other operators are dealing the Over 9.5 at -127.
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NBA odds today
Here are the full NBA odds for all of today’s matchups.
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