After one of the best games of his career on Thursday, Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves are on the second night of a back-to-back against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and we have searched through the NBA odds on Friday to find you the best player prop bets.
If you haven't seen the video of Anthony Edwards' game-saving block against the Indiana Pacers, make sure you check out the highlight. I've rewatched it 100 times, and I'm still lost for words.
In fact, just watch the entire game because it was an Edwards masterclass, and he also finds himself in our best NBA player props for Friday.
Find out which other player props I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Friday, March 8.
Best NBA player props today
- Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 3.5 assists (+106 at FanDuel)
- CJ McCollum Over 3.5 assists (+104 at Caesars)
- Anthony Edwards Over 4.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
Picks made on March 8 at 10:55 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for March 8
Prop bet #1: Not getting Bog'ed down
Bogdan Bogdanovic was in the running in the Sixth Man of the Year odds earlier in the season, but with the Atlanta Hawks experiencing several injuries to their roster, Bogdanovic has been thrown into a bigger role within the offense, and I don't think the sportsbooks have properly adjusted the Bogdan Bogdanovic odds to account for this.
Bogdanovic has started in his last six games for the Hawks and played 30+ minutes in each of those games. It's resulted in his assists prop being adjusted from 2.5 to 3.5, which is completely fair, but it's no longer just Trae Young missing for the Hawks on Friday against the Memphis Grizzlies. I think this is why we are seeing a probability gap in Bogdanovic's assist odds because this prop needed to undergo another adjustment and it hasn't.
The Hawks will be without Jalen Johnson and Kobe Bufkin on Friday. Johnson left Wednesday's game against the Cavaliers with an ankle injury and is out on Friday. Bufkin, who was the backup point guard to Dejounte Murray, has also been ruled out with a toe injury.
These injuries are significant because the Hawks will be without two players on Friday who had been picking up the slack of creating offense for others with Young out of the lineup. Now the Hawks will have to lean even more heavily on Bogdanovic and Murray to create offense, but Bogdanovic is still trading at 3.5.
Bogdanovic should be trading at 4.5 at plus money, definitely not 3.5 at plus money, and I hope that's the number we see in his next game because he went Over the total on Friday. Bogdanovic is projected to have 4.2 assists on Friday against the Grizzlies, which means we can price the over 3.5 assists at -145, but it is available at FanDuel at +106.
Bogdan Bogdanovic prop: Over 3.5 assists (+106 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: CJ sees the floor
We played Over 3.5 assists in the CJ McCollum odds on Tuesday when he was taking on the Toronto Raptors, and we were fortunate to cash the Over when McCollum dropped four dimes because the game was a blowout and McCollum only played 22 minutes.
I felt fortunate on Tuesday with this bet, and I'm feeling even more fortunate on Friday because the fact that McCollum just barely went Over the total and played 22 minutes is giving us an opportunity to run this bet back. This price point on McCollum should've been adjusted, but it is flying under the radar because he just barely went Over with four assists.
One of the reasons we placed this bet on McCollum on Tuesday was because I thought his lack of minutes in his previous game logs had dropped his assists prop to a number that wasn't reflective of his role within the offense. The game against the Raptors just added to this narrative because now in three of McCollum's previous four games he has played in, he has played 25 minutes or less. Not because he has a diminishing role or anything, he just left the game against the Miami Heat with an injury and his games against the Indiana Pacers and Raptors were complete and utter blowouts.
This is just a good price in general for McCollum, but the matchup doesn't hurt either. The Philadelphia 76ers are reeling and lack rim protection. McCollum is surrounded by teammates who will be able to capitalize and convert his potential assists at a higher rate against this 76ers defense. When the New Orleans Pelicans played the 76ers earlier in the season and Joel Embiid missed the game, Zion Williamson was 11 of 12 from the field.
McCollum is projected to have 4.6 assists on Friday against the 76ers, which means we can price the Over 3.5 assists at -184, but it is available at Caesars at +104. I would be shocked if we didn't see this bet catch heavy steam throughout the day.
CJ McCollum prop: Over 3.5 assists (+104 at Caesars)
Prop bet #3: Pro Ant
We all saw the devastating news on Thursday for the Minnesota Timberwolves that Karl-Anthony Towns will miss about a month after undergoing a procedure for an injured meniscus in his knee. This is a problem for the Wolves because they are a team that thrives on defense. They already struggle to score points sometimes, and now they will be without one of their better offensive weapons.
What does that mean for the Anthony Edwards odds? He'll have an extremely high usage, and he showed it on Thursday when he dropped 44 points against the Indiana Pacers on 35 field goal attempts. Edwards is going to have to carry this offense, but he can't do that every night with only scoring. They are also going to have to lean on him to create, and I think that got lost in the shuffle here in the updated pricing for Edwards because he only had three dimes on Thursday.
Edwards usually trades in that 4.5 to 5.5 window for his assists prop when the Timberwolves are healthy, and now with Towns out of the lineup, Edwards' usage is forced to skyrocket. Not only is Edwards trading at 4.5, but also at plus money. Yeah, thanks, I'll hit the button on that.
I think the matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is also a major factor here and should help us get some potential assists for Edwards. The Pacers just couldn't do anything that forced Edwards to pass, but the Cavaliers have strong perimeter defenders who will make life a lot more difficult for Edwards. The rim protection of Jarrett Allen should also force some passes, and with Evan Mobley out for the Cavaliers, this should open up Rudy Gobert in the dunker's spot when Allen does help.
Edwards is projected to have 4.9 assists on Friday against the Cavaliers, which means we can price the Over 4.5 assists at -116, but it is available at bet365 at +115.
Anthony Edwards prop: Over 4.5 assists (+115 at bet365)
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