Best NBA Player Props Today: Magic Hamper IQ's Scoring Once More

Prop bet #1: Dynamic Durant

One of today's most intriguing games is between the Phoenix Suns and the Milwaukee Bucks. It’s a contest between two teams that consider themselves contenders, but clearly have a lot of work to do before they’re a serious threat to the teams at the top of their respective conferences.

For Phoenix, part of its battle is cleaning up turnovers. And it starts with the best players, including Kevin Durant. KD is averaging 3.8 turnovers per game over his last 10, which is why these Kevin Durant's odds for turnovers are what they are.

That’s a bit of a shocking mark, as one of the main things that sets Durant apart from other players his size is his handle. He gets so low with the ball and can pull off all the dribble moves that a point guard can. He’s a master of using hang dribbles and hesitations to wrongfoot opponents and create separation. 

I believe this high turnover stretch to be an anomaly, and this prop is going to be the high watermark for Durant. It’s also way too high given the opposition. 

The Bucks play one of the most conservative defensive schemes in the NBA. They downright revolted against Adrian Griffin earlier in the year for trying to install a base scheme that had players chasing and pressuring the ball more. 

The Bucks quite literally force the fewest turnovers of any team in the NBA. Per Cleaning the Glass, their opponents turn it over on just 11.8% of possessions, while the best teams like the Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder force turnovers on north of 15%.

And Milwaukee is seriously lacking athleticism on the perimeter. Khris Middleton is in theory its best defensive option for Durant, and while he makes his return on Sunday, it'll be his first time playing in 17 games. So I’m not expecting him to come in and be a defensive stopper right away.

Kevin Durant prop: Under 3.5 turnovers

Prop bet #2: No-no Nurkic

While many of the Suns’ role players have disappointed this season, Jusuf Nurkic has easily exceeded expectations. He doesn’t have the raw athletic gifts or shooting touch that Deandre Ayton did, but he’s better than him in just about every other category.

That includes his work as a rim protector, an area that Nurkic has been up and down with in recent years. But he’s showing remarkable consistency lately, as the “Bosnian Beast” now has 14 straight games with at least one block.

While Nurk can sometimes get sidelined when the Suns want to play small, that won’t be an option against the Bucks on Sunday. Milwaukee opens and closes with a two big lineup featuring Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo, so Nurkic is a near lock to have a big presence in the game around the basket.

While I considered the Jusuf Nurkic odds on a few of his other props including rebounding, oddsmakers have begun to adjust those odds accordingly following his back-to-back 20+ rebound performances. Given this matchup, I think there’s still great value in his block prop.

Jusuf Nurkic prop: Over 0.5 blocks

Prop bet #3: Quick rematch

The NBA’s new propensity for having teams play each other in sets of two in recent years means there's often an opportunity to learn from bad plays or double down on good ones. I’m doing the latter with my third and final player prop as I once again take advantage of these enticing Immanuel Quickley odds.

The Magic are arguably the most difficult defensive matchup for opposing guards in the Association, and doubly so skinny ones like IQ. They have on ball pressure upfront and quality rim protection on the backline throughout their starters and bench units.

In Friday’s game against Orlando, Quickley finished with just 10 points and Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz never let him get remotely comfortable. 

He made only one shot at the rim, which came off a fast break. In the halfcourt, he just didn’t manage to manufacture good offense for himself at all, even as he found good looks for others. While he had a nice passing game and finished with 10 assists, he went just 3-for-9 from the field. 

That he was only able to get up nine shots is the most important number. Rarely will a player go Over 21 points if their shot attempts are so depressed by the defensive pressure.

Really the only thing that’s changed about this prop is this has gone from a home game to a road game for Quickley.  

While I don’t expect IQ’s confidence to shake just from being on the road like I would some role player shooters, it does mean that the Magic in general are going to be more comfortable. They’ll feed off the crowd on defense and could potentially run away with this game early.

Immanuel Quickley prop: Under 21.5 points