Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Thumbs-up for Plumlee

With an eventful NBA Rivals Week now in the rearview mirror, there’s a lighter four-game slate scheduled for Sunday, January 29th. We’ve surveyed them all in search of the best value on the NBA odds board.

Our three favorite NBA player props for today highlight the unconventional achievements of Mason Plumlee, T.J. McConnell finding success at starting point guard, and Khris Middleton’s return to form. Let’s dive in.

NBA player props for January 29

• Mason Plumlee Over 12.5 points (-122)
• T.J. McConnell Over 14.5 points (-115)
• Khris Middleton Over 18.5 points + rebounds +assists (-115)

Picks made on 1/29/2023 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Plumdog Millionaire

One of the funniest subplots of this NBA season has been the ongoing Mason Plumlee renaissance. Videos have circulated of NBA players literally grimacing every time they watch Plumlee take a jump shot or a free throw this season, as he makes the most unnatural motions you’ll ever see by a pro player. But the funnier part is, those shots are mostly going in.

Don’t let the aesthetics fool you. At 32 years old this is, by far, the best season of Mason Plumlee’s career.

It all began with Plumlee – a career 56.3% free throw shooter who slumped to a sub-40% mark last season – switching his shooting hands at the line. The switch began because of an injury last season to the index finger on Plumlee’s right hand. When he began to see results, he spent the entire offseason developing his off-hand game. He started the year by shifting to lefty at the foul line, but as the season has gone on, he’s gradually transformed into a fully left-hand dominant player. 

Mason Plumlee really just hit a pull-up middy to put the nail in the coffin for the Bulls. pic.twitter.com/cbYUtESABL

— Steph Noh (@StephNoh) January 27, 2023

That improvement at the line has completely revived Plumlee’s game. Rather than shy away from contact at the rim, he’s seeking it out. His 4.5 free throw attempts per game would be a career-high, as would his 67.4% 2-point percentage. He’s also taking jump shots that were far out of his range as a right-handed player.

The Charlotte Hornets have not had much to appreciate this season, and Plumlee’s awkward game isn’t for everyone, but it’s been undeniably effective. At this point, you have to consider the improvement real. Plumlee has averaged 19.6 points over his last five and has hit the Over on his rapidly rising points total in nine of his last ten games. Eventually, oddsmakers will adjust, but for now, cash in on “Plumdog Millionaire” while you can.

Mason Plumlee prop: Mason Plumlee Over 12.5 points (-122 at FanDuel)

T.J. Max

Before there was Jose Alvarado, there was T.J. McConnell. He’s a pest, and a player that every coach would love to have. All the sports movie cliches about “wanting it more” and superlative effort amounting to more than the sum of his athletic ability are actually true in McConnell's case. Despite his limitations, he just makes winning plays.

He’s long been an effective on-ball defender who is more than capable of running an offense when called to do so. As Tyrese Haliburton continues to miss time with knee and elbow injuries, the 6-foot-2 backup has come through over and over again for the Indiana Pacers.

T.J. McConnell always brings the energy.??

19 PTS
8-11 FG
9 AST
6 REB
3 STL pic.twitter.com/5ZzXNDMBUm

— Indiana Pacers (@Pacers) January 28, 2023

McConnell has taken on a bigger and bigger role for Rick Carlisle. McConnell has rewarded Carlisle’s faith with inspired play, and so T.J. has now started in four straight games. After averaging only 7.7 points in a reserve role on the season, McConnell has now more than doubled that at 16.4 points over his last five games.

He still rarely takes threes – instead, he’s a crafty dribbler who makes his living inside the arc with hesitations and exquisite footwork, pivoting and spinning his way to the goal on the baseline. He’s also good for about one inbounds steal per game.

T.J. has hit the Over on his points total in eight of his last 10 games, and his minutes continue to rise. I’m backing McConnell again tonight.

T.J. McConnell prop: T.J. McConnell Over 14.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

Money Middleton

Khris Middleton has had a star-crossed season for the Milwaukee Bucks. The All-Star wing has only played in 10 games to date, missing the first 22 games due to a broken wrist before returning briefly. He then missed another 17 straight with a knee injury. Middleton has returned to action over the last three games, and understandably, the Bucks have kept his minutes on a short leash.

Middleton has been coming off the bench and limited to about 15 minutes a night in his first three games back, and his first two outings were about as rusty as one would have expected. His last game, however, looked an awful lot like the old Middleton. He added 17 points, four rebounds, and four assists in just 14:41 played. 

Khris is back and in his bag.

17 PTS | 4 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 54 FG% pic.twitter.com/ostXagU1JE

— Milwaukee Bucks (@Bucks) January 28, 2023

He was key to a dominant offensive start by Milwaukee, who erupted for a 45-point first quarter against the Pacers. Middleton looked smooth and under control running the offense as well as working off-ball, and it seems like it’s only a matter of time before Mike Budenholzer takes the training wheels off completely. 

I’m not sure if that happens in this game against the New Orleans Pelicans, but I’m confident in Middleton’s ability to stuff the stat sheet, even with limited burn. It’s clear that he knows if he’s on a time limit that he’s going to get the most out of every second he’s on the court.

Khris Middleton prop: Khris Middleton Over 18.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 at Pointsbet)

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