Let’s kick off the weekend with some winners in the NBA player prop market, and with five juicy matchups to choose from there's no shortage of betting value to be found.
Giannis may be back for the Bucks but Jrue Holiday should keep getting buckets tonight against the Pacers. I’m fading the Timberwolves' 3-point defense against the Grizzlies, but who do we back? And Wendell Carter Jr. could be in for a tough night against Bam Adebayo and Co.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Friday, January 27.
NBA player props for January 27
Picks made on 1/27/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Jrue the day
Giannis Antetokounmpo has been nursing a knee injury the last couple of weeks to the point where the two-time MVP had to miss five games. But luckily for the Milwaukee Bucks, Jrue Holiday was more than happy to step up in his teammate's absence.
And even though Antetokounmpo has been back for the last two games, there's still value in Holiday to get some buckets tonight when they visit the Indiana Pacers.
Holiday averaged 27.2 points while shooting 53.8% from the field during the five games that Giannis missed. That includes putting up 35 points on 13-of-19 from the floor against this same Pacers team just back on Jan. 16. Now, with Giannis back, he’s put up 16 and 20 points in the last two games, but I still like Holiday to go Over his point total of 19.5 in this matchup.
For starters, the Pacers aren’t a great defensive team. Indiana ranks 21st in defensive rating and they has really struggled to contain opposing guards. No team in the NBA gives up more points per game to opposing guards than the Pacers.
And while Giannis is back, it feels like the Bucks are taking it easy with him. He’s only averaged 28.7 minutes per game in his first two games since returning to the lineup. I like Holiday to keep up his strong play and go Over his point total in this one.
Jrue Holiday Prop: Over 19.5 points (-118 at FanDuel)
Js from JJJ
Jaren Jackson Jr. is getting plenty of love in the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds, but quietly he has becomes a reliable secondary shooter for the Memphis Grizzlies as well.
JJJ is shooting 38.5% from 3-point range for the season, which is third-best on the team, but he has taken his shooting to the next level in 2023. Over 13 games since the start of January, Jackson is draining a crazy 45.8% of his threes. He’ll get a chance to keep letting it fly tonight when the Grizz visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday night.
With Rudy Gobert, the T-Wolves do a solid job of protecting the paint and collapsing on the ball. However, that leaves them vulnerable on the perimeter: Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the NBA when it comes to defending the 3-ball.
The Wolves rank 27th in the NBA in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 21st in opponent 3-point attempts allowed per game. And Jackson being a stretch four is a bad matchup for this team. He has drained two or more threes eight times over that 13-game stretch, including the last three in a row, and Minny isn’t the team to mess with his rhythm.
The nice plus money here is the cherry on top.
Jaren Jackson Jr. Prop: Over 1.5 made 3-pointers (+135)
Tha Carter flops
After a foot injury cost him roughly a month of action, Wendell Carter Jr. is back and playing really good basketball for the Orlando Magic, averaging 14.4 points and 9.3 rebounds over the last 11 games. But he could be in for a tough night when he and the Magic visit the Miami Heat on Friday night.
The Heat are a strong defensive team, ranking fourth in the NBA in D-rating. They're also a team that collapses on the ball when it goes to the interior. So, it shouldn’t be shocking that the Heat allow the fewest points in the paint in the NBA.
And in two full games against the Heat last season, Bam Adebayo and his teammates limited Carter to eight and nine points respectively. And even in the last 11 games, Carter has been held below 13 points five times.
Adebayo and the Heat have just been a matchup nightmare for Carter, I’m betting they hold him below his point total in this one.
Wendell Carter Jr. Prop: Under 14.5 points (-115)