Best NBA Player Props Today: Young Spread the Love Against Hobbled 76ers

The 76ers are down the bodies to slow Trae Young down, and our NBA player prop picks think he'll still be primed for big numbers. See why we're backing the Hawks' All-Star snub tonight.

Jon Metler - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Jon Metler • Betting Analyst
Feb 9, 2024 • 15:41 ET • 4 min read
Trae Young NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The NBA trade deadline has come and gone, and with teams reorganizing their depth charts after Thursday's trades, we have plenty of NBA odds to dig through and analyze to find the best bets for Friday's NBA player props.

The trade deadline on Thursday defied the NBA odds, that's for sure. I honestly can't believe that D'Angelo Russell is still on the Los Angeles Lakers and Dejounte Murray will play the rest of the season with the Atlanta Hawks.

While our NBA player props the last few days have been directly related to the rumors around the trade deadline, Friday's bets will be taking on a much more traditional approach.

Find out who we're backing in my free NBA picks for Friday, February 9th.

Best NBA player props today

Picks made on February 9 at 12:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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NBA player props for February 9

Prop bet #1: Rocket launcher

At first glance, this price looks a little high for Sengun with his assists prop trading at 5.5. Alperen Sengun odds usually grab my attention when trading at 4.5, but there are multiple reasons for this, and the price of 5.5 (+112) actually should be shorter.

The Houston Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet on Friday against the Toronto Raptors, and VanVleet is a ball-dominant, high-assist type of player. Not only should we see more touches for Sengun with VanVleet out and the offense running through him, but I also love what adding Amen Thompson to the lineup does for Sengun's assists prop.

When Sengun makes a pass to VanVleet, the potential assist is usually for a jump shot. Thompson, on the other hand, is a player who will make cuts to the basket and play above the rim. A dunk converts at a much higher clip than a 3-point shot. Another reason that I think this price should be shorter than the +112 that we're able to bet on at FanDuel is specifically tied to the matchup with the Raptors.

Jakob Poeltl loves to play a deep drop on defense. This means regardless of who handles the ball in the pick and roll, the Rockets will be able to hit Sengun on the pocket pass going towards the rim, and he will either be able to score or create for his teammates. Sengun consistently catching this pocket pass against the Raptors' defense should open the door to plenty of high-value potential assists at the rim.

Sengun is projected to have 6.2 assists on Friday against the Raptors, which allows us to price the Over 5.5 assists at -130, but it is available at FanDuel at +112. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 20%.

Alperen Sengun prop: Over 5.5 assists (+112 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Locksmith 

With VanVleet out and the Rockets playing against the Raptors, Jabari Smith Jr. odds should not be trading with a total of 12.5 points. This number should be higher than normal for Smith given the injury to VanVleet and the matchup with the Raptors, but we're seeing the opposite for Smith. That's fine; we will gladly bet this into place for the sportsbooks.

When you look at Smith's recent box scores, I think we're seeing some recent blowouts affecting his points total and keeping it at a number that we have an edge on.

Smith missed four games in a row, and since coming back, in three of the five games, he's played sub-24 minutes and went way Under his points prop in those games. This recent statistical output by Smith is keeping his points total down at 12.5, but Smith's minutes weren't down because he was playing like Jordan Poole; all of these games were 20-plus point blowouts. The Rockets' game on Wednesday against the Indiana Pacers was very competitive, and Smith played 40 minutes and scored 20 points on 15 attempts from the field.

With VanVleet out of the lineup, the Rockets will look to lean on Smith even more for his scoring. VanVleet is a high-assist player, but he can also shoot. His replacement, Thompson, is much more strictly someone who creates offense for others and will be looking to create open jumpers for Smith.

Smith is projected to score 14.7 points on Friday against the Raptors, which allows us to price the Over 12.5 points at -160, but it is trading at -115 at FanDuel. I'll be shocked if this line doesn't get to 13.5 throughout the day on Friday. Our same projection of 14.7 points prices the Over 13.5 at -124.

Jabari Smith Jr. prop: Over 12.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Young money

Let's face it, convincing everyone to bet on an Over for Young's assists prop is pretty easy. Young is one of the league leaders, averaging 10.9 assists per game, and is elite at creating shots for his Hawks teammates. So why are we playing the Over against the 76ers, and why is the 10.5 (+105) a price point we should be attacking?

Who on the 76ers is going to meet Young at the point of attack and slow him down from penetrating the lane and creating for his teammates? De'Anthony Melton is still injured, and the 76ers just traded Patrick Beverley and Jaden Springer at the trade deadline. Young could have a field day getting to wherever he wants on the court against the 76ers, but the advantages don't stop there.

With no Joel Embiid protecting the rim, and Young playing alongside Onyeka Okongwu and Jalen Johnson, who can play above the rim and are lob threats, the potential assists for Young against the 76ers could begin to convert at a really high rate.

In the two games that Young has played against the 76ers this season, he is averaging 20 potential assists per game and 12 assists per game. Now eliminate some of the best 76ers defenders from the equation, and the 10.5 (+105) begins to look very enticing for Young.

I also think Dejounte Murray has an advantage with his assists prop for the same reasons that Young does, but Murray strikes me as someone who might turn this into more shots than passes against the 76ers defense. Where I could see Young just having a blast setting up dunk after dunk for Okongwu and Johnson.

Young is projected to drop 11.3 dimes on Friday against the 76ers, which allows us to price the Over 10.5 assists at -130, but it is trading at +105 at BetMGM. Based on this projection, these Trae Young odds show a positive expected value of 16%.

Trae Young prop: Over 10.5 assists (+105 at BetMGM)

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Betting Analyst

Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, Jon immediately turned his attention to the NBA when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 14 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve and, when possible, lets the numbers do the talking.

Jon hosts the NBA Prop Picks show powered by EV Analytics, which airs on the Covers YouTube channel, and he is also a regular guest on Before You Bet with Joe Osborne.

Jon keeps his eye on the NBA betting markets 365 days a year and uses 10-plus sportsbooks to always shop around for the best price for whichever bet he is looking to place. If there are NBA games on for that current day, you can guarantee that Jon woke up way too early, has already had some caffeine, and is ready to begin placing bets on NBA player props.

His favorite sportsbooks are Pinnacle, Caesars, and Betano, with the first two being where he places the majority of his bets, while Betano sneaks into the top three because of their creative futures markets for the NBA.

Before joining Covers in December 2023, Jon worked as a sports betting analyst at Sportsbook Review. He also holds a Bachelor's degree from the University of Windsor, where he studied Human Kinetics with a focus on Sports Studies.

Jon's top piece of advice for sports bettors: "Any outcome is possible in sports betting; you're just hunting for one that is more probable than the sportsbooks have it priced."

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