It’s NBA trade deadline day and even though it feels like nothing will eclipse the blockbuster the Phoenix Suns pulled off to acquire Kevin Durant, today’s movement certainly is creating some opportunity in the player prop market.
Michael Porter Jr. has heard his name pop up in trade rumors and he’s playing some of the best basketball of his career heading into tonight’s matchup with the Magic. Who will slow down the Hawks shooters now that the Suns best perimeter defenders are off to Brooklyn? And speaking of Brooklyn, Spencer Dinwiddie returns to the Nets as a part of the Kyrie Irving deal and should see a bump in his usage rate vs. the Bulls.
Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, February 9.
NBA player props for February 9
Picks made on 2/9/2023 at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best NBA player props
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Porter power
Don’t be shocked if the Denver Nuggets try to make a move to bolster their roster after watching the Phoenix Suns add Kevin Durant in the wee hours of the night. That said, the Nuggets starting lineup is pretty strong as currently constituted.
And part of the reason for that is because Michael Porter Jr. is playing one of the best stretches of basketball of his career. He is averaging 16.9 points on 48.9% shooting for the season, but in six games since returning from a heel injury, Porter is averaging 21 points per game on 53.5% shooting which includes a very good 43.6% from deep.
Porter should be able to keep up that production tonight against the Orlando Magic. Orlando is not a strong defensive team, ranking 21st in efficiency rating, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, and allowing the second most 3-point attempts per game.
We are still getting some value with Porter’s point total which is set at a reasonable 17.5 — considering that’s a number four times in this six-game stretch — and point guard Jamal Murray is listed as questionable with a knee injury.
Micahel Porter Jr. prop: Over 17.5 points (-105)
Murray mania
The Phoenix Suns are obviously the talk of the NBA town after swinging that massive deal to bring in Kevin Durant. However, the move came at a cost and the team will be a little shorthanded when they visit the Atlanta Hawks on Thursday night.
The Suns were an OK team when it came to defending the perimeter this season. They didn’t give up a ton of looks, but ranked 18th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Unfortunately, they shipped off arguably their two best perimeter defenders in the trade to acquire KD — Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson.
No doubt one of those two would be tasked with slowing down Dejounte Murray. The Hawks guard is heating up and taking more threes than ever. Murray is shooting 43.2% from beyond the arc on 7.4 three attempts per game over his last five games.
Murray has hit three or more threes four times over those five games, which includes him going 4 of 7 from deep against this same Suns team on Feb. 1. The +156 value on the Over is too good to pass up.
Dejounte Murray prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+156)
Returning with a bang
It’s crazy to think that a year ago the Brooklyn Nets had Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and James Harden. Now, they are left with Ben Simmons. That ain’t great.
The Nets will have to soldier on with their new roster, which at least for the time being, still features Simmons, an inexplicably hot Cam Thomas, and former and newly acquired Spencer Dinwiddie. Today my focus is Dinwiddie, who makes his return to his former squad when the Nets host the Chicago Bulls.
Dinwiddie — who was last a member of the Nets back in 2020-21 — was having a solid season playing with Luka Doncic, averaging 17.7 points on 45.5% shooting from the floor which includes an impressive 40.5% from 3-point range. He’s also adding 5.3 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game. But for tonight’s matchup against the Bulls, we’re going to focus on his 3-point shooting.
Dinwiddie has really found his shooting rhythm over the last month or so. He was shooting 41.8% on seven attempts per game over his last 13 games with the Mavs. With the current state of the Nets, it wouldn’t be surprising if he was leaned on in this matchup.
That’s partly because the Bulls have struggled to defend the 3-ball. Chicago allows the fourth most 3-point attempts per game and the fifth most 3-point makes per game.
I know it’s on a different team, but Dinwiddie hit three or more threes eight times over his last 13 games and it can be expected that his usage rate will go up a touch with the Nets.
Spencer Dinwiddie prop: Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-105)
