We only have six games on the schedule in the NBA on Wednesday, but we have a couple of solid matchups in the Western Conference, one of them featuring the frontrunner in the NBA MVP odds in Nikola Jokic. We've searched through the NBA odds to find you the best NBA player props for Wednesday's games.
If you had a bet on the Dallas Mavericks moneyline on Tuesday, my condolences because that Max Strus buzzer-beater from 59 feet was an all-timer.
There will be no time for either the Mavericks or Cleveland Cavaliers to dwell on this game, because both teams are on the back end of a back-to-back on Wednesday. We'll be backing one player from each team, plus a Chicago Bull.
Find out who I'm backing in my free NBA picks for Wednesday, February 28.
Best NBA player props today
- Kyrie Irving 6+ assists (+135 at FanDuel)
- Nikola Vucevic Over 2.5 assists (-110 at DraftKings)
- Evan Mobley Over 2.5 assists (+140 at bet365)
Picks made on February 28 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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NBA player props for February 28
Prop bet #1: Kyrie Irving
Just five games ago, Kyrie Irving was trading with a total of 6.5 assists, but after three straight Unders — significantly below his usual performance — the Kyrie Irving odds are now trading at 4.5 assists on Wednesday against the Toronto Raptors. This total can't be trading at 4.5 for Irving, especially not against the Raptors, and that's why we have an Over bet to place.
The assists prop for both Irving and Luka Doncic has been all over the place this season because their main lob threat, Dereck Lively, has been in and out of the lineup. When Lively is in, it provides a significant boost to both Doncic and Irving, as he can convert potential assists at a really high rate.
Not only is Lively back from the broken nose, but Irving also has a second lob threat now in Daniel Gafford, which essentially means that however their minutes are staggered, they always have the threat of an alley-oop or dunk to convert potential assists.
Against the Raptors, the lob threats of both Lively and Gafford present an even bigger problem. Raptors center Jakob Poeltl left Monday's tilt with an ankle injury and is questionable for Wednesday's game against the Dallas Mavericks. Without Poeltl in the lineup, Kelly Olynyk would draw the start for the Raptors and be tasked with protecting the rim against Lively and Gafford. That's not going to work, and it will open the door to a ton of high-value potential assists for Irving.
I am playing an alternate total here on Irving as his normal line is hovering around 4.5 (-145). Irving is projected to have 5.8 assists on Wednesday against the Raptors, which means we can price the 6+ assists at -106, but it is available at +135 at FanDuel. By going after the alternate total for Irving, we can increase our expected value by roughly 6% based on our projection.
Kyrie Irving prop: 6+ assists (+135 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Nikola Vucevic
A Nikola Vucevic assists prop against the Cleveland Cavaliers — what could go wrong here? It's not like these exact Nikola Vucevic odds cost us a unit on February 14 or anything when these teams last met. I thought Vucevic was a steal at 2.5 (-135) the last time the Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls met, so imagine how I feel with the juice now set at -110 on Wednesday.
When the Bulls and Cavaliers met on February 14, Billy Donovan opted for a bigger lineup against the Cavaliers to match their frontcourt by having Alex Caruso come off the bench and starting Andre Drummond. I'd expect to see the same lineup from Donovan on Wednesday, especially with Caruso tweaking his hamstring in Tuesday's game and the Bulls playing on the tail-end of a back-to-back.
I like Drummond starting alongside Vucevic, especially for his assists prop because it provides Vucevic with someone he can get the ball to for high-value potential assists. You could see it in their previous meeting; the first offensive set of the game, the Bulls ran a high-low action with Vucevic throwing a lob to Drummond from the nail. This will make Vucevic less dependent on getting his assists from jump shooters on the Bulls, like DeMar DeRozan, Coby White, and Ayo Dosunmu.
I like the matchup for Vucevic, but in general, this is a very low total for Vucevic, who has seen his assists prop continue to plummet over the last several weeks. My jaw would've hit the floor at the beginning of the season if you told me this is where he would be trading.
Vucevic is projected to have 3.2 assists on Wednesday against the Cavaliers, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at -146, but it is available at DraftKings at -110. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 13%.
Nikola Vucevic prop: Over 2.5 assists (-110 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Evan Mobley
Betting on an Over for Evan Mobley's assists prop on Wednesday probably won't take as much convincing as Irving and Vucevic, who are both in buy-low spots because of an Under streak. This isn't a buy-low situation for Mobley; it's more like hitting the button before they realize they've set the Evan Mobley odds at the exact same price as Tuesday's game.
What did Mobley do on Tuesday? Just seven assists against the Mavericks — no big deal for someone trading at 2.5 (+140). When Mobley played the Bulls on February 14 he had zero assists, but that was on six potential assists, so I'm not too worried about the zero assists that appear in his game log.
The Bulls should deploy a lineup that features both Vucevic and Drummond in the starting five. When they last met, Drummond was the primary defender on Mobley. The Cavaliers need to attack the foot speed of Drummond on the perimeter, and they did so with Mobley. Mobley was able to get by Drummond into the lane, but while Mobley had a step on Drummond, Drummond's size was also causing Mobley to look for shooters.
The Cavaliers also involved Mobley as a screener in the pick-and-roll because Drummond was his primary defender. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland attacking a dropping Drummond is something the Cavaliers will want to take advantage of, but it also opens up the pocket pass to Mobley, who can then look for shooters against a rotating defense.
Mobley is projected to have 2.7 assists on Wednesday against the Bulls, which means we can price the Over 2.5 assists at +100, but it is available at bet365 at +140.
Evan Mobley prop: Over 2.5 assists (+140 at bet365)
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