Best NBA Player Props Today: Luka Lets Loose Against Spurs

Prop bet #1: Vooch Has Dimes

You might think I'm lying, but I've been eyeing Nikola Vucevic's odds surrounding his assists prop for several games, as the juice has been adjusting to some recent Unders by the Chicago Bulls center. I almost hit the button on the Over for Vucevic recently when I saw a 2.5 (-155), but I backed off of it. At 2.5 (-135) against the Cleveland Cavaliers though, sign me up.

Vucevic usually trades with a total of 3.5, which is an accurate number for Vucevic, so you need a big number on the plus money to hit the Over. Thanks to a recent stretch of six straight Unders on his assists prop, we have seen this total drop to 2.5 and trade with juice that we need to attack. The price of the prop is always the biggest factor, but the matchup against Cleveland also opens the door to why I think we need to get after this Vucevic assists prop. 

The Cavs have one of the better interior defenses in the NBA with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. If the Bulls are going to create space for DeMar DeRozan and Coby White to score in the lane, they'll need to draw Allen out of the paint. That will be Vucevic's job, and he can accomplish that because he is a stretch five who can knock down an open 3-point shot. Involving Vucevic in some actions and giving him touches on the perimeter should help create space for the other players on the Bulls. 

Not only will this help pull Allen out of the paint, but perimeter touches for Vucevic opens up passes to cutters for potential assists, and if Allen is out of the paint, there will be less rim protection, and those potential assists can convert at a higher rate.

Vucevic is projected to have 3.4 assists on Wednesday against the Cavaliers, so you can see how the drop from 3.5 to 2.5 on the total plays a big role in this wager. With a projection of 3.4, we would need a big plus money price to play the Over 3.5, but this projection on a 2.5 allows us to price it at -178, yet it is available at bet365 at -135.

Nikola Vucevic prop: Over 2.5 assists (-135 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Johnson lends a helping hand

I don't know what it is with Jalen Johnson's odds, but I don't think any player in the NBA sees more movement on the juice for their total based on their recent box scores than Johnson. Maybe the assists focus for the Atlanta Hawks is so concentrated on Trae Young and Dejounte Murray that less effort is put into Johnson?

Johnson has been consistently trading with a total of 3.5. However, if he goes Under in his previous game, you can grab a plus-money price on the 3.5 total. But if he goes Over, then it's trading with increased juice on the Over.

With Johnson going Under in his previous two games, the sportsbooks took it a step further on Wednesday and dropped his total to 2.5 against the Charlotte Hornets. This is an overreaction: the 3.5 total is the correct number for Johnson's assists prop, and it's why I'm not only on the Over but also the alternate total of 4+ assists for Johnson.

The Hawks will be without Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu on Wednesday against the Hornets. This leaves the Hawks' frontcourt with very little depth, and it could mean heavy minutes for Johnson, who is also an excellent rebounder. Johnson is already someone who Quinn Snyder isn't afraid to play for 40+ minutes, so when we're projecting his assists prop, the chance at elevated minutes could be a big bonus here.

Not to mention Johnson played his college basketball at Duke, and with the game being in Charlotte, I imagine there will be some friends in attendance. Things like this are never the reason we place the bet; it's just a bonus to a probability gap we are already seeing in the odds.

Johnson is projected to have 3.7 assists on Wednesday against the Hornets, which allows us to price the 4+ assists at +100. Based on this projection, this bet is showing a positive expected value of 25%.

Jalen Johnson prop: 4+ assists (+150 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #3: Luka locks in

We all witnessed the triple-double from Victor Wembanyama on Monday against the Toronto Raptors, where he finished the game with 10 blocked shots. Wembanyama has elite rim protection and can alter shots, but this is Luka Magic we're talking about here.

If I've learned anything from watching Doncic in his career, it's that when a matchup feels personal, he rises to the occasion and puts on a show. A matchup with Wembanyama has those vibes, as not only is Wembanyama heralded as a generational talent, but he is also from Europe. Sounds like someone Doncic would want to drop a 40 piece on and steal the headlines.

Wembanyama is an incredible shot blocker, there's no denying that. But Doncic is also elite in the paint as a scorer. The decal, ability to hunt body contact, and just the sheer creativity of Doncic make me feel like he will still be able to score on Wembanyama. There's also one shot Wemby can't block: the deep pull-up three from beyond the arc.

The total of 31.5 points is a big number, but for a scorer like Luka, it's not high enough. Doncic is projected to score 34.7 points on Wednesday against the Spurs, which allows us to price the over 31.5 points at -165, but it is available at FanDuel at -115. I'll happily bet on Luka Doncic's odds to eclipse that point total.

Luka Doncic prop: Over 31.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)