Today’s NBA Player Prop Picks: Markkanen Cleans the Glass vs Wizards

It’s a light night in the NBA, with just a doubleheader on the schedule for basketball prop bettors to sort through, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found.

In one game, the Pelicans host the Spurs, where Pels big man Jonas Valanciunas will continue to be a matchup problem for San Antonio. In the second, Wizards’ forward Kyle Kuzma could pose a problem in the paint for the Jazz while Lauri Markkanen will be busy cleaning up the glass.

Here are my best NBA player prop picks for Thursday, December 22.

NBA player props for December 22

• Valanciunas Over 17.5 points
• Kuzma Over 21.5 points
• Markkanen Over 7.5 rebounds

Picks made on 12/22/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best NBA player props

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

JV to varsity 

New Orleans Pelicans big man Jonas Valanciunas broke out of his scoring slump in a big way last time out, pouring in a massive 37 points in a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks back on Monday night. JV will have a great shot at keeping that momentum going when the Pels host the San Antonio Spurs tonight.

Now, it may seem a bit odd that Valanciunas is getting a point total of 17.5, considering he is averaging just 13.7 points per game this season and had gone Under this number in seven straight before his strong performance in his last game.

But, this is all about the matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio runs a fairly small lineup and has been vulnerable against opposing bigs. The Spurs allow the second-most points in the paint per game in the NBA this season.

Valanciunas has been a particularly big problem for the Spurs in their two meetings this season. On Nov. 23, JV went 9-for-11 from the field for 22 points and he followed that up by going 8-for-11 for 21 points in a matchup on Dec. 2.

The Spurs have proven they don’t have an answer for a guy like Valanciunas. With no Zion Williamson, he could be even more of a focus for the Pels offense in this one. I’m riding JV’s momentum and big edge in this matchup, betting him to eclipse his point total.

Jonas Valanciunas Prop: Over 17.5 points (-125)

You snooze, you Kuz

The Wizards just snapped an ugly 10-game losing streak, thanks to a 113-110 win over the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday. More impressive is the Wizards were able to pull a win out of their hat without Kristaps Porzingis, who is listed as questionable for this one as well with a non-COVID illness.

That presents an opportunity for Kyle Kuzma and his point total, which is on the board at 21.5 for this matchup against the Jazz.

Not surprisingly, Kuzma is averaging exactly 21.5 points per game this season, but the combination of potentially no Porzingis and the matchup with the Jazz makes this number a touch low.

Kuzma has upped his scoring average to 24.8 points per game over his last 15 contests but what makes him a tough matchup for the Jazz is his versatility. Yes, Kuzma is taking 7.6 threes per game this season, but when he is not jacking up treys, he’s working down low and I expect him to recognize his matchup edge against the Jazz.

Utah really struggles to defend the interior. In fact, no team in the NBA allows more points in the paint per game. That could be even worse with starting center Kelly Olynyk sidelined for this one.

Expect Kuzma to work the Jazz down low and go Over his point total in this one — a number he has gone Over 11 times in his last 15 games.

Kyle Kuzma Prop: Over 21.5 points (-115)

Finnish the possession 

In a game where a couple of key bigs in Porzingis and Olynyk could potentially be missing, there could be a few more rebounds up for grabs.

I am honing in on Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen, who is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game this season. We are getting plus money for him to go Over his rebounding total of 7.5, because Markkanen has seen a dip in his rebounding numbers over the last couple of games but the matchup against the Wizards could change that.

Washington is a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to cleaning up the glass, ranking 15th in the NBA in rebounding rate and 19th in opponent rebounds per game. Those numbers should be even worse if Porzingis, who leads the team with 8.9 boards per game, can’t go.

Markkanen has averaged just five rebounds over his last four games, but three of those games came against the Pelicans, Bucks, and Cavaliers, who are three of the better rebounding teams in the NBA. In the 10 games prior Markkanen averaged 9.2 rebounds, grabbing eight or more boards eight times in that stretch.

Back Markkanen on the boards in this one at plus money.

Lauri Markkanen Prop: Over 7.5 rebounds (+105)

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