Pelicans vs Knicks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: DiVincezno Goes Deep

Both the New York Knicks and New Orleans Pelicans will be hungry for a win when they lock horns Tuesday night under the famed lights of Madison Square Garden.

Slight NBA odds favorites tonight, New Orleans also has a slight edge for a guaranteed playoff spot, a half-game up on the Kings and Mavericks for the 6-seed. Meanwhile, after a spirited run to the East's Top 4, injuries have hit New York hard, dropping it to just 4-6 over its last 10 games.

What's going to give tonight? And better yet, how do we attack this matchup from a betting angle? I've got my free NBA picks and predictions for Pelicans vs. Knicks on Tuesday, February 27.

Pelicans vs Knicks odds

Pelicans vs Knicks predictions

The Pelicans are going to want to keep defense in mind. With Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum both listed as questionable tonight (and on the front end of a back-to-back, no less), they'll possibly be down two of their three best offensive weapons against one-man wrecking crew Jalen Brunson. 

Seeing as human mosquito Jose Alvarado is suspended and won't be around to irritate Brunson, it's likely that Herb Jones winds up with the bulk of the Brunson assignment. Jones is very possibly going to wind up on an All-Defense team; a substantially better option than the defensively-feeble McCollum or a third-string point guard.

This means that Donte DiVincenzo will probably be seeing coverage from the odd-man-out, with lengthy Brandon Ingram more likely to draw Josh Hart, who's 6-foot-4 but plays like he's 6-foot-10. It also creates an opportunity for bettors in DiVincenzo's props markets.

The Big Ragu's points are set at 15.5 O/U, with the Over juiced heavily to -135 at DraftKings — only fair, given that he's topped this total in nine of his last 11 games while averaging 22.2 points this month. The discrepancy is because DiVincenzo's minutes have dipped slightly over the past three games (probably due to Bojan Bogdanovic's arrival), but DD is still a high-IQ option who plays hard on both ends and has sublime chemistry with Brunson. He's also one of the Knicks' better scoring options, and it will be tough for Tom Thibodeau to keep him on the bench in what could devolve into a rock fight.

If you don't want to get vigged heavily, DiVincenzo Over 16.5 points can be had at -102 (FanDuel), and I don't hate the play. But given where the majority of his points usually come from, I think we can find even better value. 

Instead of pouncing on the scoring market, we can pivot to 3s made. DiVincenzo's aced tonight's total of 3.5 O/U (+117 at BetRivers) in eight of nine games this month, and he'll have lots of chances to get hot against a team that philosophically will spoon-feed him the looks he wants. The Pels are second in opponent 3-point frequency, and while they defend the three extremely well, that's because of the prowess of guys like Jones and Alvarado, and Ingram's length — things that DiVincenzo won't have to concern himself with. 

In a spot where Brunson should have to defer a bit more than usual, we'll take advantage of these accessible Donte DiVincenzo odds in a matchup that's not as bad for him as it appears at a glance.

My best bet: Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 made 3s (+117 at BetRivers)

Pelicans vs Knicks same-game parlay

Donte DiVincenzo Over 15.5 points

Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 made 3s

Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists

33% boost available

+296 +393 at DraftKings

We've more or less touched on all of these legs in our best bet breakdown above; DiVincenzo figures to be covered by a soft spot on defense regardless of how the injury report shakes out, while Brunson's going to face the brunt of the Pelican's perimeter resistance in All-World pest Jones. 

Even in a game that should have a slower pace, Brunson's going to get plenty of looks as a halfcourt playmaker. As a baseline, he's averaging 7.7 assists this month, and has 33 in his last three games. With an uptick in his distribution, I'm okay getting juiced on the 6.5 number (-150 as a standalone bet).

Part of my ease with the juice is due to DraftKings' generous 33% SGP boost today, meaning we can help offset the lower payout and take this highly-correlated safe play for tonight's same-game parlay pick.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Knicks spread and Over/Under analysis

This should be a close game, with the spread currently sitting at New Orleans -3, moving slightly in the Pels' favor since opening at -2.5, and some movement back and forth up to -3.5. Given the injury uncertainty on the favorites' side, it's a bit curious to see movement in their favor, but -3 is an industry consensus as of late Tuesday morning, with FanDuel shifting to -3.5.

The Pelicans and Knicks are dead-ringers against the spread this season, with the former covering at a 54.4% rate, and the latter right behind at 53.6%. Curiously enough, the Knicks have been a horrendous ATS team at the Garden, going 9-20 — only the G-League Grizzlies are worse this season. This could help explain the line movement in NOP's favor, with public money coming in on fading New York in this spot. 

The total's set at a conservative 218.5, seeing movement down from 220.5 opening. We'd expect to see movement in the opposite direction if McCollum and/or Williamson were trending towards playing, and I would lean towards the Under in their absence.

Every game means a ton to the Pelicans down the stretch, but they're also on the front end of a back-to-back and facing the high-octane Pacers tomorrow night, then again on Friday. It's highly uncertain who suits up tonight (keep an eye on Underdog NBA's Twitter for the latest), and the absence or presence of the Pels' arsenal massively impacts not only their scoring potential but their approach to this matchup. 

Pelicans vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Knicks are 9-20 ATS at home this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Knicks.

Pelicans vs Knicks game info

Pelicans vs Knicks latest injuries

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