Pelicans vs Kings Predictions, Picks, and Odds for Tonight’s NBA Game

Domantas Sabonis has been a beast for the Sacramento Kings, especially on the boards, but our NBA picks think the matchup against NOLA won't play in his favor.

Apr 11, 2024 • 10:08 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The New Orleans Pelicans currently hold down the No. 6 seed in the West, and their final three games will determine if they keep that spot.

They’ll face one of the play-in teams chasing them tonight when they visit the Sacramento Kings. NOLA has dominated this head-to-head and it's looking to complete the rare 5-game regular season series sweep.

Read my Pelicans vs Kings predictions to find out my favorite NBA picks for this April 11 matchup.

Pelicans vs Kings predictions

My best bet
Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 rebounds (-120 at DraftKings)

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My analysis

It’s been quite the season for SacTo big man Domantas Sabonis, who leads the league in rebounding at 13.7 per contest — not to mention fifth in assists (8.2), while pumping in 19.4 points per game.

His board work is the focus here, and the peculiarly high rebounding line of 14.5 against the New Orleans Pelicans

Perhaps that’s because Sabonis is averaging 15.2 rebounds per game this month across five games, including a pair of 20-rebound efforts against the Clippers and Nets, while pulling down 16 against the Celtics.

He’s also an almost auto lock for double-digit rebounding: Sabonis has led the Sacramento Kings in rebounding with at least 10 boards in 36 straight games, and 61 of the Kings’ last 62.

But he hasn't posted a biggie against these Pelicans, with a decent four-game sample to work with.

The closest he’s come to cracking Thursday's total was on December 4 when he hauled in 13 rebounds. The other three games? Sabonis is averaging just 9.7 boards.

Part of the reason is the matchup: Jonas Valanciunas is an inch taller and 25 pounds heavier, and he’s held his own against Sabonis, outrebounding him in three of the four meetings.

New Orleans is eighth overall in defensive rebounding and can throw a bevy of long, athletic defenders in Sabonis’ path to the glass when Valanciunas does sit.

No doubt Sabonis gets to 10 boards, but the path to 15 is a little too tall.

Pelicans vs Kings same-game parlay

Domantas Sabonis Under 14.5 rebounds

CJ MCCollum Under 4.5 made threes

Under 217.5 points

CJ McCollum has been raining fire from downtown. CJ went 5-for-10 from 3-point range en route to 29 points in his last outing. Despite shooting a blistering 55.7% from behind the arc in the last 10 games, he’s only been able to top his 4.5-make line half the time. Simply put, it’s hard to hit five threes in a game.

Last game against the Kings, he was a  crisp 7-for-10 effort from deep to power a 30-point effort. 

That performance looms as the outlier, though, the only time McCollum has gone over three 3-point makes in seven games against the Kings since joining New Orleans.

I’ll wrap up this SGP by targeting the Under — which sounds crazy considering these teams have topped 217.5 points in nine straight meetings. But NOLA is eighth in scoring defense, and over the first two legs of this four-game road trip, it's limited opponents to 102.5 points per game. The Pels are also down Brandon Ingram (knee), who averaged 24.8 points in four games against the Kings.

The Kings may be stumbling with five losses in their last eight, but they’ve tightened up defensively over that stretch, holding teams to 106.3 points per game. 

They’ve had to, with Kevin Huerter (shoulder) and Malik Monk (knee) out, and Keegan Murray (calf) questionable Thursday. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pelicans vs Kings odds

Pelicans vs Kings live odds

Pelicans vs Kings opening odds

  • Spread: New Orleans +1 | Sacramento -1
  • Moneyline: New Orleans -100 | Sacramento -110
  • Over/Under: Over 218.5 | Under 218.5

Pelicans vs Kings spread and Over/Under analysis

  • The Pelicans have covered the spread in each of their last four games against the Kings
  • Sacramento is 4-2 against the spread in its last six games
  • The Under has hit in five of the last six meetings between these teams
  • The Kings have gone Under the total in three straight games

Pelicans vs Kings trend

At 26-13, New Orleans has the best road winning percentage in the NBA. Find more NBA betting trends for Pelicans vs. Kings.

Pelicans vs Kings game info

Location: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA
Date: Thursday, 4-11-2024
Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT, truTV

Pelicans vs Kings latest injuries

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