As much as we collectively praise the Indiana Pacers offense, the Cleveland Cavaliers enjoyed the No. 5 offensive rating in the NBA after the All-Star Break. Cleveland was boosted by taking 3-pointers on 45.8% of field-goal attempts, the fifth-highest rate in the NBA.
But that should come to a screeching halt in the second round of the playoffs. Indiana also has one of the best 3-point defenses in the NBA, if not the best in these playoffs.
My Pacers vs. Cavaliers props and NBA picks focus on what should be surprisingly bad shooting in this series. Game 1 tip-off comes at 6:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, May 4.
Best Pacers vs Cavaliers props
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Garland u6.5 3-point att (-130) -
Turner u1.5 3-pointers (+145) - Hunter u1.5 3-pointers (+120)
Pacers vs Cavaliers player props for May 4
Darius Garland Under 6.5 3-point attempts (-130 at bet365)
Darius Garland missed the last two games of the Cleveland Cavaliers' first-round sweep of Miami thanks to a left big toe injury. He is officially listed as “day-to-day” heading into this series, having gone through Friday’s practice and then using Saturday to gauge the impacts.
That much caution alone warrants hesitation. Do not scoff: the big toe matters in shooting. Struggling to get full push from your legs because pressing on the front of your foot causes pain will lead to shots falling short.
Garland may be able to play through the remaining pain, but that does not mean he will be able to play well in all regards. The regard to most likely fall short is his shooting.
When fully healthy, Garland may clear this prop. He did so in the first two games against the Heat and in three of his last six games in the regular season. But against the Indiana Pacers, that will be tougher.
Any hesitation from Garland should show up along the arc.
Myles Turner Under 1.5 3-pointers (+145 at bet365)
For the Pacers to pull off the upset in this series, they will need yeoman’s work from Myles Turner. The 10-year veteran was not a dominant offensive force in the first round against Milwaukee, yet he was a net +23 in a series Indiana won by just +38. Turner played a significant role.
He went 9 of 24 (37.5%) from deep, taking 4.8 of them per game. Most notably, his 3-point percentage should fall in this series.
It should fall because more is going to be asked of Turner defensively going against Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. It should fall because he will be hounded by those two excellent defenders whenever he has the ball. And it should fall because that is an underrated aspect of Cleveland’s success.
The Cavaliers ranked No. 8 in the NBA after the All-Star break in opposing 3-point percentage, holding foes to just 35.1% from beyond the arc.
Turner’s emphasis in this series should not be on perimeter shooting. Doubting him early on at such plus-money should be a profitable venture.
De’Andre Hunter Under 1.5 3-pointers (+120 at bet365)
Do not mistake these Unders on 3-pointer props as an expectation of a low-scoring, plodding, mistake-riddled Game 1. No, it is simply a recognition of these defenses, ones that are not properly appreciated.
De’Andre Hunter cleared this prop in the last three games of the sweep against the Heat. He topped it in his last six games of the regular season.
Assuredly, this is a misprint, right? No.
First of all, never make a bet solely because of a trend.
Secondly, this number is low — and the plus-money payout is somewhat tempered — because Indiana’s defense excels against 3-point shooting. After the All-Star break, the Pacers ranked No. 4 in both opposing 3-point percentage and opposing 3-point rate.
Indiana opponents took shots from beyond the arc on just 39.0% of their field-goal attempts. Only Houston, Portland and Dallas had lower rates. The latter two of those had such miserable interior presences late in the season that opponents enjoyed getting to the rim. The Rockets have an athletic, wing-heavy defense much like the Pacers do.
Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith and Tyrese Haliburton all have excellent length to deter shots, and that should drive De’Andre Hunter into playmaking mode.
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