NBA Odds: What Does Warriors Offseason Have in Store for Curry & Co?

The Golden State Warriors are staring the end of an era in the face. After missing the playoffs entirely, our expert breaks down the NBA odds to see if GSW's stars could be in new threads for the 2024-25 season.

Apr 24, 2024 • 16:16 ET • 4 min read
Stephen Curry NBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Be it the Avengers or the Beatles, even the mightiest of super groups have a shelf life. 

The Golden State Warriors — or at least their triumphant trio of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green — could be the next colossal collective coming to a close. 

NBA odds are available for the expiry date of the Dubs, with bookmakers setting markets on whether those three stars will stay in the Bay Area next season, and where they'll play next if not.

I dig through the NBA rumors, matching up what the odds say about the future of the most transformative team in basketball history.

Golden State Warriors NBA offseason odds

Will Curry, Thompson, Green all stay with GSW? Odds
WarriorsYes -130
No -110

We know Curry will be back with the Golden State Warriors next season. The sharp-shooting guard is as potent as ever, averaging more than 26 points per game over 74 games played (his most since 2016-17). Steph is a Warrior for life.

Draymond is still under contract and too much of a headache for teams to come sniffing around for a trade. The only way he’s not back in San Francisco next season is if he retires. While it’s been mentioned, the chaotic point-forward is still the glue that bonds Golden State, and his recent rebound and assist production is pacing at his career average.

Thompson is the one eye-brow raiser in this bunch. He’s a free agent with 13 seasons’ worth of wear on the tires (plus plenty of deep playoff runs) and has watched his output shrink to 17.9 points per game this past season. His touch from 3-point range has seen the most drastic dip over the last few seasons, shooting 38.7% from distance this year after registering 40-plus percent success for most of his career.

Despite that, multiple teams have been rumored to be courting Klay this summer, and paying Thompson the market rate for an RFA would leave owner Joe Lacob with less wiggle room when it comes to the Dubs' younger players and their upcoming contracts.

If Thompson does return to the Warriors, he’s giving them the “friends and family” discount and doing so as a bench player. Now, measure that scenario against a beefy free-agent deal and starter’s minutes somewhere else. Knowing Klay’s quirks and his aging legs, he could be fine playing limited minutes for limited money in Golden State, allowing them to round out the roster and get back in the NBA championship odds hunt.

Stephen Curry next team odds

Stephen Curry is a -5,000 front-runner to play in Golden State next season. Those odds translate into a 98% implied probability of No. 30 staying put. Even a 2% shot of the Chef cooking in someone else’s kitchen feels like a pipedream.

Team Odds
Warriors Golden State Warriors -5,000
Spurs San Antonio Spurs +650
Lakers Los Angeles Lakers +800
Hornets Charlotte Hornets +1,200
Heat Miami Heat +2,000

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Klay Thompson next team odds

A contending team looking for veteran leadership and a 3-point threat is the perfect place for Klay Thompson. Two of the better fits would take the California kid to the East Coast, however.

The Orlando Magic (+500) and Philadelphia 76ers (+1,200) could use a proven winner in the locker room and are in desperate need of points from beyond the arc. Those franchises also sit near the top of the table in available salary cap.

Team Odds
Warriors Golden State Warriors -150
Magic Orlando Magic +500
Pistons Detroit Pistons +800
Thunder Oklahoma City Thunder +1,000
Spurs San Antonio Spurs +1,000

Draymond Green next team odds

Draymond Green could always retire, but he’s under contract with Golden State and due $77 million over three years, which means the only way out of San Fran is either via trade or release. Given the paycheck and the problems, it’s safe to say suitors aren’t knocking down the Dubs’ door for trade talks.

His passing, rebounding, defense, and toughness (when not choking out opponents) remains the beating heart of the Warriors, so you can see why he’s -400 to stay put. But if we want to play devil’s advocate (as Draymond loves to do), moves to the Miami Heat (+1,400), Dallas Mavericks (+1,800), or Memphis Grizzlies (+2,200) seem possible, given Green will want to play for a contender.

Team Odds
Warriors Golden State Warriors -400
Pistons Detroit Pistons +1,000
Heat Miami Heat +1,400
Mavericks Dallas Mavericks +1,800
Magic Orlando Magic +1,800

Chris Paul next team odds

Chris Paul’s pairing with the Warriors’ “Big Three” was a flop, leaving many to wonder if it’s time that CP3 packed it in. Paul quashed those retirement rumors, and the Warriors have until June 28 to decide on his future before his guaranteed money kicks in.

There are plenty of whispers around a potential move to San Antonio, giving the young Spurs a veteran leader. However, heading into his 20th season, Paul is ring-chasing, which is why teams like the Los Angeles Clippers (+400), L.A. Lakers (+400), and 76ers (+800) sit atop the “next team” odds board.

Team (if not GSW) Odds
Clippers Los Angeles Clippers +400
Lakers Los Angeles Lakers +400
76ers Philadelphia 76ers +800
Bucks Milwaukee Bucks +900
Spurs San Antonio Spurs +1,000

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