Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 3 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Towns Keeps Minnesota in the Hunt

If tonight is not a “must win” for the Minnesota Timberwolves, that is only by the most technical definition of the word “must.” The Timberwolves trail the Denver Nuggets 2-0 in this series, and their best hope at prolonging it is to capitalize on the Nuggets’ months of struggles on the road. Can Minnesota make this series interesting?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Nuggets vs Timberwolves on Friday, April 21.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 3 best odds

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Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 3 picks and predictions

It would not be in good faith to sit here and offer a Timberwolves spread or moneyline best bet. It would be blind hope. It would be a Minnesota season ticket-holder begging to have a good time at the game tonight.

Frankly, the Timberwolves’ third-quarter surge on Wednesday may have doomed their chances tonight. Yes, Minnesota seemed to finally find some offensive success, scoring 40 points on 80% shooting in just one frame. But it also served notice to Denver to not ease up on the series.

The Timberwolves’ best chance tonight probably would have been to catch the Nuggets sleeping. That quarter woke them up.

The most popular bet is to advocate for a first-half spread when a Game 3 home team is down two games to none. Teams down 0-2 and then at home in Game 3 are 80-48-9 ATS in the first half of Game 3 since 2007. That seems really encouraging, right? Just an absolute auto-bet? Not quite.

More “0-2 Trend" spots in the #NBAPlayoffs. Went 1-1 Thursday.

Since 2007, teams down 0-2 and playing at home in Gm3 are 80-48-9 vs first-half spread.

But books now pad those 1H spreads, leaving trend to go 16-16-2 since 2018.

ATL 1H +1.5
MIN 1H +0.5 pic.twitter.com/Ta3YslItCh

— Jason Logan (@CoversJLo) April 21, 2023

Since 2018, that trend has been 16-16-2. For 11 years, it hit at 65.5%. In the last five, it has been exactly even.

So trusting that first-half spread should be ruled out. Trusting the Timberwolves in general should be ruled out too, but Denver is a "stay away" when on the road. What is left?

One thing can be assumed tonight: Karl-Anthony Towns will shoot.

Towns has not set the world afire this series, but can any one player hold that much blame when the Timberwolves have struggled this much as a whole? Game 1 was arguably their worst offensive game of the season. Perhaps they were worn out by the play-in grind to simply make the playoffs. The offensive struggles go beyond Towns.

In the six games he logged at the end of the regular season after a calf strain cost him more than 50 games, Towns averaged 5.5 shots from deep per game, making 2.5 per game. Yes, he shot 45.5% from distance since his return. He claims to be the best-shooting big man of all time for a reason, and that’s because the numbers back him up.

Towns has not slowed down his attempts against the Nuggets, taking seven shots from beyond the arc in Game 1 and five in Game 2. He’s just not making as many right now, hitting only three of those 12.

In that 40-point third quarter on Wednesday, Towns went 2-for-2 from deep. Minnesota spaced him out more, initiating the offense with a Rudy Gobert pick-and-roll, keeping Towns out of the lane to give that roll a better chance. It is not Towns’ preferred offensive role, but it worked, so we should expect to see more of that.

No Towns’ 3-point attempt is a bad shot. He is that good. He shot 41% on 4.9 attempts per game last year, his fourth career season north of 40%. If the Timberwolves are to extend this series past an ugly four-game sweep, Towns going 6-of-10 from deep would be the right way to do it.

This prop bet is a bit expensive, but when Towns has to make just two threes to cash it, that cost is worth risking.

My best bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 1.5 made threes (-158)

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 3 spread analysis

The Nuggets actually were not terrible against the spread on the road this season, going 19-22 ATS as well as 19-22 straight-up. It was a mid-season stretch that undid them, going 8-12 SU and ATS from Dec. 1 to March 14. That may not sound terrible, but remember, this is a team that went 34-7 this season at home, including 25-15-1 ATS.

Maybe the Timberwolves never stood a chance on the road.

To some degree, those trends should be thrown out the window in the playoffs. But then again, Denver showed who it was. That was the bulk of three months in which it was the equivalent of the Washington Wizards or the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road. It stood out because the Nuggets were such a force at home, only bettered by the Grizzlies.

Maybe Timberwolves fans can have blind hope as 2.5-point underdogs tonight. 

Nuggets vs Timberwolves Game 3 Over/Under analysis

The best bet here is focused on Towns setting up shop on the perimeter and chucking. The logic is based on a 40-point Timberwolves quarter in Game 2 that showed some things Minnesota might be able to lean into tonight.

With a total of 222.0 or 222.5, depending on your book — just one point higher than Game 2’s pregame total — there is a good angle for Over bettors.

Line movement has been rather non-existent here, so no indication can be drawn to add to the thinking.

Trend bettors should note that the Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings between these two squads. Additionally, the Over is 7-2 in the Timberwolves' last nine games following a loss, inlcuding Game 2 of this series.

Nuggets vs Timberwolves betting trend to know

The Timberwolves are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Nuggets vs. Timberwolves.

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