The Dallas Mavericks may have just 12 wins, but it’s not for a lack of effort. Over the last five games, they’ve lost countless games either in overtime or by slim margins, and now on Christmas Day, it could be time to get this season back on track.
With a solid matchup defensively, we’ll explain in our Mavericks vs. Warriors predictions and NBA picks why Golden State shouldn’t be getting so much love from oddsmakers.
Mavericks vs Warriors prediction
Mavericks vs Warriors best bet: Mavericks +8.5 (-110)
Ordinarily, we wouldn’t really find a game like this to be “fun” per se, with the Dallas Mavericks coming in seven games under .500 and incredibly injured. Well, that’s what I’m here for.
This matchup will be at least somewhat interesting given that Dallas is a team that takes the ball inside and rarely shoots threes, and the Golden State Warriors have long been a team that's centered its offense around the outside shot.
If there’s a saving grace to be found for this incredibly wounded Mavericks team, it’s the fact that the Warriors are in the middle of a shooting slump over their last five games, hitting just 35.7% of their looks from deep.
That's massive news when you consider how frequently Golden State shoots from beyond the arc, and it also helps that the Mavericks have the league’s top 3-point defense and an offense that's at least been able to rank around the middle of the league over the last five years.
The injuries for Dallas certainly aren’t good, but they’re not entirely new. The frontcourt has been banged up all year, with Dereck Lively now done for the season, but Anthony Davis and Cooper Flagg will at least be active for the Mavericks. Furthermore, it appears that Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, and Max Christie will play, shoring up some depth on the wings and at forward, where several key players are out.
The Mavericks may be cooling off a bit as we finish the month of December, but their defense should do more than enough to support some inspired play on offense. This is a team that has had some bad fortune recently, but the quality of play has been there.
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Mavericks vs Warriors same-game parlay
The Warriors are weakest inside, which isn’t exactly something new, judging by the last five years, so this is as good a time as any to fire up Flagg’s scoring total. He’s been on fire lately, hitting this number in four of his last five with a 42-point night to his name, and in December, he leads the Mavericks in scoring.
The Warriors rank 16th at the rim and 17th against the mid-range, so Flagg should have a golden opportunity to score. I also like PJ Washington to pick up a steal; not only does he lead the team in this category for the month, but his matchup — Draymond Green — has averaged 3.8 turnovers in his last five.
Mavericks vs Warriors SGP
- Mavericks +8.5
- Cooper Flagg Over 19.5 points
- PJ Washington Over 0.5 steals
Our "from downtown" SGP: Butler on the Christmas Day boards
What I like about Jimmy Butler in this game is that he’s leading the team in minutes over the last five, and despite his rebounding average coming in just under five, he should do some work on the glass against the 24th-ranked team in that category.
Anthony Davis should be pulled out of the paint with Golden State running a stretch big at center, too. I’m also infatuated with the recent uptick in minutes for De’Anthony Melton, and love that he’s taking 50% of his shots from inside of 15 feet — where Dallas is technically most vulnerable.
Mavericks vs Warriors SGP
- Mavericks +8.5
- Cooper Flagg Over 19.5 points
- PJ Washington Over 0.5 steals
- De'Anthony Melton Over 5.5 points
Mavericks vs Warriors odds
- Spread: Mavericks +8.5 | Warriors -8.5
- Moneyline: Mavericks +270 | Warriors -340
- Over/Under: Over 227.5 | Under 227.5
Mavericks vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Mavericks have cashed the third-quarter Over in 24 of their last 34 games for +12.35 units and a 31% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Warriors.
How to watch Mavericks vs Warriors
| Location | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Thursday, December 25, 2025 |
| Tip-off | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN/ABC |
Mavericks vs Warriors latest injuries
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