With 11 straight wins, the red-hot Houston Rockets are rolling, but they’ll have a battle on their hands tonight against the Dallas Mavericks.
The Rockets snuck past the Utah Jazz on Friday in a 101-100 win to keep their streak going and stay on the heels of the Golden State Warriors for the final play-in spot, but they still enter as home underdogs here in the latest NBA odds, even with Luka Doncic listed as questionable.
That’s largely because Dallas is surging too — going 9-1 in its past 10 games and coming off consecutive road victories over the Sacramento Kings to grab some breathing room in the race for the No. 6 seed.
Check out my free NBA picks for the Mavericks vs Rockets, with Texas bragging rights on the line in this March 31 showdown.
Mavericks vs Rockets predictions
My best bet: Jalen Green Over 26.5 points (+100 at bet365)
The Houston Rockets have taken off in March and Jalen Green is the biggest reason for that, thriving with the extra volume available after Alperen Sengun’s injury. Green is playing the best basketball of his career and averaging 34 ppg in his last four games.
He was the difference-maker against the Jazz, with 30 of his 34 points coming in the second half, and he’s blown past the 30-point mark in four of his past six contests.
With both offenses set to thrive tonight, I’m jumping on these odds for the Over on Green’s points prop. Houston is following his lead on the offensive end and he’s knocked down 42% of his 3-pointers in March.
This matchup should present plenty of openings for a speedster like Green to get into the paint. The Dallas Mavericks perimeter defense is a glaring weakness and I see the Rockets’ guard-heavy line-ups cashing in.
With Green taking at least 20 shots in eight straight contests, there’s a clear pathway to another monster scoring night. That feels like an Over to me.
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Mavericks vs Rockets same-game parlay
Jalen Green Over 26.5 points
Rockets moneyline
Kyrie Irving Over 24.5 points
Houston’s postseason push has become one of the league’s best storylines this month, and I see the hosts bringing their A-game again tonight.
In addition to their 11-game win streak, the Rockets are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 contests, bringing a playoff intensity as they try to claw their way into the No.10 spot.
Say what you want about the strength of Houston’s recent schedule. It’s been admittedly weak (including the Jazz, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Washington Wizards twice) but the hosts have gone past 130 points in four of their last eight games.
I’m picking Houston to do just enough defensively to snap the Dallas’ six-game win streak.
I’m also jumping on a Kyrie Irving prop. He’s shot the ball well this week, including a flashy 11-for-16 line against the Kings last time out.
With Dillon Brooks likely to be draped all over Doncic, I expect Irving to be in attack mode against a scrambling Houston defense.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mavericks vs Rockets odds and trends
Mavericks vs Rockets opening odds
- Spread: Dallas -2.5 | Houston +2.5
- Moneyline: Dallas -141 | Houston +127
- Over/Under: Over 230 | Under 230
Mavericks vs Rockets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Rockets are 26-11 at home this season.
- Houston is 42-30-1 against the spread and Dallas is 42-31.
- The Mavs have won four of the last five meetings but the Rockets got the upper hand in their December showdown, holding Dallas under 100 points.
- A line of 230.5 feels about right, but I see this matchup as a slight Under, which has been a winning ticket in seven of the past 10 meetings and in 32 of the Mavs’ last 48 games.
Mavericks vs Rockets betting trend to know
The Rockets have covered the spread in 26 of their last 36 outings at Toyota Center. Find more NBA betting trends for Mavericks vs. Rockets.
Mavericks vs Rockets game info
| Location: | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, March 31, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southwest, Space City Network |
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