With LeBron James closing in on the all-time scoring record, NBA player props on the legend are seeing some big numbers. James needs just 36 points to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar atop the record books and could very well do that tonight in Los Angeles against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
With LeBron taking aim at the record, the O/U on his points total is set at around 32.5. Will he go gunning for that record tonight and surpass his points total or is there NBA odds value in the Under? I let you know with my best LeBron James picks for January 7.
LeBron James NBA prop pick and same-game parlay
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Looking to bet on some NBA action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $3,000! Sign Up Now
B) Get one no-sweat NBA same-game parlay every day at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
LeBron James NBA best bet
The numbers that James is putting up at 38 years old are incredible but his points total is a bit inflated here. James still loves to dish the ball and his scoring has historically regressed when he has another high-end scorer, in Anthony Davis, to pass the ball to.
In 19 games this season without Davis, James has scored a whopping 34.5 ppg on 23.9 FGA. However, in 24 games with Davis this season, James is averaging a more modest 26.5 ppg.
In five games since Davis came off the IL and returned to the lineup on January 25, James has scored more than 28 points just once.
The Lakers are expected to be at full strength tonight and with other scoring options like Davis, Russell Westbrook, Lonnie Walker, Dennis Schroder, and the recently acquired Rui Hachimura, James won't have to force shot attempts.
The Thunder play at a blazing-fast tempo and are 20th in the NBA in scoring defense (116.4 ppg). However, they rank a respectable 12th in defensive rating and actually allow the fewest fast break points per game (11.0) in the league. James is second in the league in transition points per game (8.5) and if the Thunder can prevent him from running the floor and getting easy buckets, they should be able to keep him Under his points total.
There's certainly a narrative that James will try to push for the record tonight but I think that's a bit overblown. If he doesn't get the record today he will almost certainly get it on Thursday at home against the Bucks, so there's no reason to force the issue. Especially with the Lakers more concerned with winning games and making the playoffs.
I don't see James taking too many field goal attempts tonight and if the Lakers build a comfortable lead, I could see him resting a bit in the fourth quarter as he continues to manage a nagging ankle injury.
LeBron James Prop: Under 33.5 points (-115)
LeBron James NBA SGP
James Under 30.5 points
Davis Over 26.5 points
James Over 8.5 rebounds
Lakers -6.5
Although I'm fading LeBron on his points total, I do think he'll fill up the stats sheet in other areas, while AD will have a productive night against a Thunder team that struggles in the post.
King James has snagged at least nine rebounds in six of his last eight games and should get plenty of rebounding opportunities against the fast-paced Thunder who rank 27th in rebound rate.
I also like the well-rested and healthy Lakers to cover the spread against OKC who lost last night and is just 2-4 SU and ATS in its last six.
