Knicks vs Pacers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Big Ragu Racks Up Points

Prop bet #1: Siak' value

You might look at the recent box scores and the juice on this prop and decide there's no way you're hitting the button on this number, but let me see if I can sell you on Over 2.5 assists (-145) in the Pascal Siakam odds on Friday. The potential assists have been there, and in an elimination game at home, this price could be even better than how we currently value it.

When OG Anunoby went out with an injury, the New York Knicks made Precious Achiuwa the primary defender on Siakam in Games 3 and 4. However, in Game 5, Tom Thibodeau made a switch and added Miles McBride to the starting lineup instead of Achiuwa. This ultimately changed the primary defender on Siakam, who is now being guarded by Josh Hart.

With Hart as the primary defender on Siakam, the Indiana Pacers should be looking to increase Siakam's touches on offense because he has a size advantage. While his usage could increase, one thing I noticed from Game 5 is that Hart's speed was a little disruptive to Siakam, as Hart was able to beat him to the spot a couple of times, cutting him off and forcing a pass. Isaiah Hartenstein and other Knicks defenders are also looking to help Hart because they know there's a size mismatch. When the double-team comes, it creates more potential assist opportunities for Siakam.

So not only do we have a change in the primary defender for Siakam, which should increase his potential assists, but this total is also falling as Siakam has gone Under his assists total in four of the five games against the Knicks in this series.

With the potential for elevated minutes for Siakam due to the circumstances and Game 6 being played at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, which will benefit any 3-point shooters who catch a pass from Siakam, it's extremely hard not to like the Over 2.5 assists with it trading at -145 at bet365.

Siakam is projected to have 3.5 assists on Friday against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -197, but it is available at bet365 at -145.

Pascal Siakam prop: Over 2.5 assists (-145 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Artful Aaron

I played the Over 9.5 points in the Aaron Nesmith odds in Game 5 at relatively similar juice (-120), and we ended up losing a unit as Nesmith finished the game with only eight points. If you look at the box score, this bet wouldn't excite you at all, but when you watch the film, I couldn't hit the button fast enough on this number once again for Game 6. There's a lot to unpack with this prop, but this is my favorite bet on the board.

We're seeing an edge on Nesmith's points prop because his minutes in the previous two games aren't accurately reflecting his importance and role for the Pacers. Nesmith is the primary defender on Jalen Brunson. His size and wingspan make him the most disruptive defender the Pacers have for guarding Brunson, and this makes his minutes very secure. Yet, he is being priced as someone who we only need 30 minutes from to establish a nice edge, and that's why we need to jump at this price.

His minutes haven't been high the last two games because Game 4 was a complete blowout, and in Game 5, Nesmith was in foul trouble — well, kind of — and then it was also a blowout in the second half. I say he was "kind of" in foul trouble because when Nesmith picked up his third foul with nine minutes left in the second quarter, the Pacers challenged the call, won the challenge, and Rick Carlisle left Nesmith on the bench coming out of the timeout. Brunson went on to absolutely torch Andrew Nembhard and Ben Sheppard as the primary defenders, and I believe Carlisle didn't realize that Nesmith didn't actually have three fouls.

Why the points prop for Nesmith? Nesmith shoots 42% from deep and is capable of blitzing this total with his 3-ball if he gets hot, but it's his ability to get to the rim against the Knicks' defense that has me on his points prop. Brunson is the primary defender on Nesmith, and he has struggled to contain the ball the entire series. When Nesmith gets in the lane, this version of the Knicks' defense is also weaker on the interior with Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby both out with injuries.

Nesmith is projected to score 12.2 points on Friday against the Knicks, which allows us to price the Over 9.5 points at -190, but it is available at bet365 at -115.

Aaron Nesmith prop: Over 9.5 points (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Giving Donte his due

The movement on the points prop in the Donte DiVincenzo odds is absolutely wild when you consider where this number was trading just one game ago for Game 5 on Tuesday. DiVincenzo was trading at 22.5 on Tuesday, a number we played the Under on in our NBA release show here at Covers. 

After scoring eight points in Game 5, this total is now six points lower at 16.5 on Friday. I had to do a double-take when I was drinking my coffee, but this prop at the same time perfectly highlights how the number a prop is trading at drastically alters our opinions on a specific player as a bettor. The adjustment on DiVincenzo's prop to move this number from 22.5 to 16.5 is way too much, and it's why I'm playing the Over. 

In Game 5, Thibodeau opted to insert McBride into the starting lineup because he wanted more speed on their defense to increase the pressure on the Pacers' guards. It worked, and I think it highlights how secure DiVincenzo's minutes are coming into Game 6. The Knicks are injured, need shooting for when the Pacers blitz Brunson, and want to play small. Considering the strategy Thibodeau wants to deploy and with a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals on the line, I don't think DiVincenzo will be spending much time on the bench.

This total has also come down on DiVincenzo because he has only played 32 and 30 minutes in the previous two games. That has nothing to do with his role on the Knicks. Game 4 was a complete blowout, and in Game 5, DiVincenzo was in foul trouble and finished the game with five fouls.

We're obviously not banking on it to establish an edge, but it's worth highlighting that the last time the Knicks played a Game 6 on the road in Philadelphia, where they could win the series, Thibodeau played DiVincenzo for all 48 minutes.

DiVincenzo is projected to score 18.5 points on Friday against the Pacers, which allows us to price the over 16.5 points at -144, but it is available at bet365 at -120.

Donte DiVincenzo prop: Over 16.5 points (-120 at bet365)