Knicks vs Heat Game 6 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Brunson Delivers More Offense

The New York Knicks were on life support. After a languid opening quarter where they scored just 14 points and committed every manner of backbreaking foul imaginable, the Miami Heat looked poised to put them out of their misery and book their ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals. But behind one of the most legendary playoff performances in Knicks history, point guard Jalen Brunson played all 48 minutes of the game and willed New York over the finish line.

The Heat now have another chance to close things out on Friday, May 11 back on their home floor. It remains to be seen if the Knicks can do the improbable again, or if Miami can avoid a potential win-or-go-home scenario at Madison Square Garden.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Game 6 of Knicks vs. Heat believe Brunson will continue his torrid scoring with New York’s season hanging in the balance.

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 best odds

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 picks and predictions

Tom Thibodeau often affectionately refers to now two-time All-NBA player Julius Randle as the engine of the Knicks' offense, but he might have to pass that baton off to Jalen Brunson after his heroics in Game 5. While Randle struggled to gain traction until the second half, going 1-7 over the first 24 minutes of action, Brunson kept the Knicks afloat.

The former Villanova guard played the entire game, and managed 38 points on 12-22 from the floor, to go with nine rebounds and seven assists. Usually, a coach pays the piper at some point for stretching a player's minutes to the extreme like that, either with wavering defense, inefficiency, turnovers, or all of the above. Remarkably, not only was Brunson the game’s most productive and efficient scorer despite drawing Jimmy Butler as his primary defender, he also only conceded a single turnover.

Brunson was involved in essentially every play of consequence for the Knicks in a must-win game and produced a stat line only comparable to Walt Frazier’s Game 7 title-winning masterpiece against the Los Angeles Lakers in 1970. 

Perhaps the most remarkable part of Brunson’s game was just how little it resembled his previous dominant performances. Brunson is a player who has long gone against the grain when it comes to desirable shot profiles. He thrives on midrange shots, often the dreaded long two, using a combination of next-level touch, endless pivots, and guile to create efficient offense from some of the least valuable parts of the court.

Instead in Game 5, Brunson didn’t take a single shot outside of the paint that wasn’t a three. It’s this shift in mindset to working for the easiest, most efficient shots plus the promise that Brunson is going to play every meaningful minute of Game 6 that has me bullish on what is an admittedly high prop number.  

By cutting out his usually heavy diet of post-ups and pivot-based attacks in the paint, Brunson was able to conserve his energy as well as generate the most high-value shots in the game. He went 4-10 from behind the arc, many of which were off the dribble right in the defender's face while using a bevy of floaters and layups to go 8-12 on two-point shots.

With Quentin Grimes (who joined Brunson in also playing 48 minutes in Game 5) parked one pass away, the Heat defenders were (and will be again on Friday) wary of putting two on the ball. Brunson is averaging 29 points per game in this series and has scored 30 or more in three of the five games. At this point, I’m banking on Brunson to produce in situations like this until I see a reason to do otherwise.

My best bet: Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 points (-112)

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 same-game parlay

Jalen Brunson Over 27.5 points (-105)

Jalen Brunson Over 6.5 assists (-135)

Jimmy Butler Under 29.5 points (-145)

+425 at DraftKings

My best bet on Brunson’s overall scoring is the foundation of this three-leg parlay, but his playmaking has been equally key to the Knicks' offensive success. With Grimes also playing the full 48 minutes in Game 6, is readily apparent that Thibs now realizes the importance of spacing. If the Knicks are going to have any chance, it will require them to spread the Heat out and not let them camp in the paint as they did so frequently in the first three games of the series. With that added spacing, Brunson will be in prime position to drive and kick. He’s had seven or more assists in all but one game in this series. 

Butler, for his part, has not been the same series-changing player that he was against the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round. After averaging more than 37 points on absurd shooting against the Bucks, Butler is down to just shy of 25 points per game against New York. Butler has simply not looked quite right since his ankle injury in Game 1 and given the quick turnaround and massive minutes burden he continues to bear, I’m expecting more of the same on Friday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 spread and Over/Under analysis

The Heat opened as -4.5-point favorites for Game 6, but with 75% of the action coming in on the home team the line has already moved to -5.5 and could yet go higher. Game 5 was Miami’s first against-the-spread loss in its last eight games, and it’s still 4-0 ATS at home in these playoffs. It took one of the great performances in Knicks history as well as a significant shooting variance edge for the Bockers to eke out a nine-point win that was in the balance in the last few minutes. All of which suggests Game 6 should strongly favor Miami. If there’s any reason to doubt the Heat in this matchup, it rests with Butler, who has been clearly limited on both ends due to his lingering ankle woes.

The Total opened at 209.5 and has dropped as low as 208.5 at some books. As we saw just last night with the game between the Boston Celtics and the Philadelphia 76ers, a Game 6 where the original series favorite has to go on the road to keep their season alive can play out much like a Game 7 in that both teams can play incredibly tight. Game 6s aren’t as notoriously low-scoring as Game 7s, but if the Heat, Knicks, or both begin to feel the pressure this could turn into a rock fight. The Under is 5-1 in the Knicks' last six games on the road, but in contrast, the Over has cashed in 10 of Miami’s last eleven home games.

Knicks vs Heat betting trend to know

Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Find more NBA betting trends for Knicks vs. Heat.

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 game info

Knicks vs Heat Game 6 key injuries

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