The Miami Heat look for a fourth straight win as they take on the top team in the East, visiting the Detroit Pistons on New Year’s Day.
Detroit, who just got back from a five-game road trip out West, are 5-point favorites in the NBA odds.
My Heat vs. Pistons predictions and NBA picks have Miami dictating offensive terms, sending this one Over the total.
Heat vs Pistons prediction
Heat vs Pistons best bet: Over 238.5 (-110)
The Miami Heat are one of the highest-scoring teams in the NBA, and they’ve been absolutely filling it up during this current win streak.
The Heat are coming off a 147-123 whipping of the Denver Nuggets, just a couple of days after hanging 142 on the Pacers in a 26-point blowout.
Miami loves to get up and down the court, leading the league in pace while ranking fourth in the NBA in scoring, putting up 121 points per game.
After playing seven of eight on the road, the Detroit Pistons finally get an extended stay at Little Caesars Arena, playing seven of their next nine at home, a place where it’s a crisp 12-2 on the season.
The Pistons own a Top-5 scoring defense, allowing just 112.7 points per game, which helps boost an offense that ranks 10th in scoring at 119.1 points per contest.
Detroit doesn’t play as frenetically as Miami – they’re in the middle of the pack in pace – but these teams do similar damage in key categories. The Pistons lead the league in paint points (58.5), but Miami is right there in third (55.7).
The Pistons’ 18.2 fast break points per game ranks second, just ahead of the Heat at 18 points per, and Detroit ranks third in points off turnovers, with Miami in fourth.
Perhaps that’s why their first meeting of the season was such a shootout, with Detroit edging Miami 138-135.
That makes it four straight times these teams have hit the Over head to head. The Pistons have won all four, all by three points or less, making the total the more enticing target.
Miami has cashed the Over four times in its last six, and Detroit averages just under 120 points per game at home. This has the makings of another shootout.
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Heat vs Pistons same-game parlay
Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been quietly lighting it up for the Heat, and he missed the first game between these teams this season.
Jaquez Jr. scored 20 in the blowout win over the Nuggets, and he’s hit the 20-point plateau four of his last five games. He’s gone Over his 15.5 line set for Thursday in five straight games.
Cade Cunningham is 12th in the league in scoring at 26.5 points per game, and the books have him rightly priced at 27.5 points against Miami.
He scored 29 in the first meeting this season, but that’s the first time Cunningham scored 28 or more points against Miami in the last eight games.
Heat vs Pistons 3-leg SGP
- Over 238.5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 15.5 points
- Cade Cunningham Under 27.5 points
Our "from downtown" SGP: Revenge for Robinson
Duncan Robinson is just 2-for-10 from 3-point range in his last two games, but he’s shooting 38.5% from 3-point range on the year, and gets the added juice of playing his former team.
In his first meeting against his old club, Robinson went 3-for-9 from downtown.
Jalen Duren has had at least 10 rebounds in five of the last seven games, topping 10.5 boards four times. He’s picked up double-digit rebounds in nine straight against the Heat, going Over the 10.5 total seven times.
Heat vs Pistons 5-leg SGP
- Over 239.5
- Jaime Jaquez Jr. Over 15.5 points
- Cade Cunningham Under 27.5 points
- Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 3-point makes
- Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds
Heat vs Pistons odds
- Spread: Heat +5 | Pistons -5
- Moneyline: Heat +168 | Pistons -200
- Over/Under: Over 238.5 | Under 238.5
Heat vs Pistons betting trend to know
The Pistons have won 11 of their last 12 games at Little Caesars Arena. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Pistons.
How to watch Heat vs Pistons
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Thursday, January 1, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN |
Heat vs Pistons latest injuries
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