After winning two Play-In games, the Miami Heat snuck into the playoffs, and they’ll face off against the Cleveland Cavaliers today as Game 1 of the series tips off at 7 p.m. ET from Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse.
Let’s take a look at three player prop bets I’m targeting for my Heat vs. Cavaliers props and NBA picks for Sunday, April 20.
Best Heat vs Cavaliers props
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Strus Over 8.5 points (-125 at bet365) - Mobley double-double (-140 at bet365)
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Mitchell Over 4.5 assists (-165 at bet365)
Heat vs Cavaliers player props for April 20
Max Strus Over 8.5 points (-125 at bet365)
Max Strus missed the start of the season, but he quickly made an impact after returning, averaging 9.4 points across 25.5 minutes in 50 games. He scored nine or more points in 30 of 50, reaching that mark in 60% of his appearances.
The sharpshooter was more productive at home, and he hit the Over in 17 of 23 at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse. Strus was even better after the All-Star break, posting 10.1 points per game. Today’s matchup against his former team should give him some extra juice.
The Miami Heat were middle-of-the-pack in 3-point percentage allowed at 36%. Over the last 15 games, they allowed opponents to shoot 37.1% from beyond the arc.
Miami’s lackluster perimeter defense is great for Strus. Of his 7.5 field goal attempts per game, 5.9 of them are from deep. I expect a couple of deep balls and at least 10 points in Game 1.
Evan Mobley double-double (-140 at bet365)
Evan Mobley enjoyed a productive season overall, and he finished it out in style, averaging 18.3 points and 9.5 boards across his final 11 games. In that span, Mobley posted seven double-doubles. He reached that milestone in 13 of 23 games post All-Star break while averaging 18.6 points and 9.6 boards.
He also found success against the Heat, recording two double-doubles in three matchups. Mobley plays PF and C, and the Heat have been generous to both positions this season. To PFs, the Heat allowed 22 points and 10.5 points, and they surrendered 20.7 points and 15 boards to opposing centers.
Davion Mitchell Over 4.5 assists (-165 at bet365)
Davion Mitchell made the most of his opportunities with Miami. Over the final 13 games of the campaign, Mitchell led the team in assists at 6.8 and played the third-most minutes (33.2) of any player on the team behind only Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo.
In that span, Mitchell dished at least five dimes 12 times, doing so off the bench in every game but one.
After arriving in Miami, Mitchell averaged 5.6 assists across 30 games and hit the Over 20 times. He handed out seven in his last game against the Cleveland Cavaliers, and he’s in a great position to do so again in Game 1.
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