Celtics vs Pacers Picks and Predictions: Indiana Gets Swift, Sweet Revenge

The NBA’s month of attrition may be wrapping up (knock on wood), but one team that cannot point to pandemic absences for its freefall is Boston. The Celtics are about to face a team that could point to those positive tests — and a litany of other injuries — for its struggles. Boston’s continued flop makes it harder and harder to put any faith in the shooting shamrocks.

Here are our best free NBA betting picks and predictions for the Celtics at the Pacers on January 12, with tip set for 7:00 ET.

Celtics vs Pacers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Boston opened as a 3.0- or 3.5-point favorite, depending on your book, before falling to -2.5 by midmorning on Wednesday. The total opened at 210.5 and rose to 211.0 around noon on Wednesday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Pacers predictions

• Prediction: Pacers +3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 211 (-110)
• Best bet: Pacers moneyline (+115)

Predictions made on 1/12/2022 at 2:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Pacers game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Wednesday, January 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSIN, NBCSB

Celtics vs Pacers betting preview

Injuries

Celtics: Marcus Smart PG (Doubtful), Payton Pritchard PG (Out).
Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon SG (Questionable), Goga Bitadze C (Questionable), Chris Duarte SG (Questionable), T.J. Warren SF (Out), Caris LeVert SG (Questionable), Justin Anderson SF (Out), T.J. McConnell PG (Out).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Pacers are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six, though that stretch features only one victory as they've lost seven of their last eight games. The Celtics, meanwhile, are 2-6 ATS in their last eight. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Pacers.

Celtics vs Pacers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

With no disrespect intended toward anyone on the Pacers, Boston will have the two best players on the court in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Usually, that's enough in a game with a spread this close. But somehow, that continues to not be the case for the Celtics.

And despite continued murmurs and frustrations coming out of Boston, those two are playing well in spite of the team's placement in the standings (10th in the East). Brown has averaged 28.3 points and 8.9 rebounds across the last 10 games, shooting 46.3% from the field while handling the highest usage rate on the team. Since returning to action last week, Tatum has averaged 24.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game, but his shooting from deep has been a letdown, including an 0 for 7 showing against the Pacers on Monday.

Yes, these two already met on Monday, and the combination of Brown and Tatum scored 50 points to push the Celtics to an overtime victory. It was a three-point win when favored by six, and part of their continued shortcomings compared to expectations.

One game should not alter projections much, but it cannot be overlooked that the Pacers forced overtime two days ago as six-point underdogs. Records and stars aside, these two may be evenly matched more than anything else. And that was at Boston, whereas tonight will be in the Midwest.

Prediction: Pacers +3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

That overtime game didn't crack 200 points - even with Brown and Tatum's output - and neither team was coming off a back-to-back. It was simply a grind.

Furthermore, rematches typically favor the defense.

That has been a broad trend the last couple of seasons as the NBA has featured more of these turnaround rematches, somehow a scheduling fix to teams playing as many back-to-backs or stretches of four games over five nights.

Looking past that one game, only one of Boston’s last four would have cracked this total. The Celtics’ struggles have primarily been of the offensive variety. Until Tatum strings together a few games of accurate shooting from deep, doubting him feels appropriate. He's shot better than 50% from 3-point range just three times in his last 17 games. He has made only 33.6 % of his threes since Nov. 28, which is mostly in line with his season average of 32.7%. He shot 38.6% from beyond the arc last season and 40.3% the year before that.

Tatum’s offensive struggles underscore the general reason to take this Under. He still plays solid defense, as all of Boston tends to, but the inability to put the ball in the basket has become the defining factor as the Celtics plummet through the Eastern Conference standings.

Prediction: Under 211 (-110)

Best bet

If these two are evenly matched, as Monday made clear - with one outperforming expectations of late and the other on the verge of falling out of the playoff picture - then there is every reason to skip the spread and bet on Indiana outright.

The Pacers have covered in three straight. Covering tonight would mean either a one-bucket loss or a win. Given the payout difference between the spread and the moneyline is about 25%, let’s get greedy and bet on Indiana’s revenge.

Things may be reaching a frustrated peak in Boston. Chances to fade this roster, which has covered the spread just once in its last five games, may not be around much longer. Maximizing the return in doing so tonight feels prudent.

Pick: Pacers moneyline (+115)

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