Celtics vs Hawks Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Boston Will Flip Defensive Switch

The Atlanta Hawks’ Game 3 victory over the Boston Celtics was one of the more shocking results of the first round.

Most analysts and sportsbooks had the Hawks drawing dead in the series, but the Hawks put together a complete performance against a Celtics team that clearly expected to cruise to an easy victory. 

The task for Atlanta only gets tougher tonight on Sunday, as it's doubtful the Celtics will turn in two sleepy performances in a row with so much at stake.

Our NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Hawks are backing Boston to rebound with a dominant Game 4 performance.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 4 best odds

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Celtics vs Hawks Game 4 picks and predictions

Pegged by many as the most likely sweep of the first round, the Boston Celtics have some work to do if they want to book their ticket to the next round for a matchup against the 76ers.

The Atlanta Hawks showed the requisite desperation in Game 3, firing on all cylinders for a full 48 minutes to go blow-for-blow with the Celtics who (by the numbers at least) had an impressive offensive showing themselves.

But for a few reasons, I’m not taking too much away from the Hawks’ upset victory in Game 3 when evaluating Game 4. Firstly, as is often the case with upsets like the one that took place in Game 3, some of Atlanta’s success was spurred by unsustainably hot shooting.

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks shot 64.3% from midrange and 45.5% from 3. For the regular season, the Hawks shot 45.8% and 35.3% from those spots respectively. Some regression to the mean is to be expected.

While the Hawks are to be lauded for making their shots, in part they were getting great looks because Boston's defense — the third-best in the regular season — simply didn’t come to play.

The Celtics clearly believed their talent advantage was so massive that they could win the game with a few minutes of effort in the final quarter. No doubt they’ve been disabused of that notion now. Atlanta also crushed the Celtics in transition, a sure sign that Boston wasn’t giving a total effort.

Finally, the Celtics didn’t impose themselves physically on Trae Young hardly at all. Young went off for the first time in the series (and for the first time in his last six playoff performances) totaling 32 points and nine assists.

With Derrick White and Marcus Smart, the Celtics have two of the best on-ball guard defenders in the NBA. They have the strength, length, and requisite discipline to corral Young and can also switch ball screens liberally without giving up too much speed. In theory, they’re an incredible defensive matchup if they put the work in.

And I believe they will. They’ve seen now that their potential opponent for the next round, Philadelphia, has advanced with a four-game sweep of the Nets. They’ve seen also that Joel Embiid’s status is up in the air due to a knee sprain.

The Celtics will realize how crucial it is to wrap this series up against the Hawks quickly, and they’ll clean up their defensive lapses leading to a strong Game 4 performance.

My best bet: Celtics -5.5 (-118 at 888sport)

Celtics vs Hawks Game 4 spread analysis

With apologies to Hawks fans, the Celtics aren’t really playing Atlanta in this series, so much as they’re playing against themselves.

The talent differential is such that if the Celtics play their game, Atlanta has no shot. If they get lured into a shootout and play without physicality as they did in Game 3, they make themselves vulnerable. 

The Celtics, much to the chagrin of their fans and head coach Joe Mazzulla, have been prone to these kinds of momentary lapses this season. Their tendency to play with their food when they get a big lead was the main reason I picked this series to go five.

To their credit, however, (and critically for bettors) they have almost universally course-corrected after dropping one of these games.

To that point, the Celtics are 11-0 against the spread in their last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. They’re also 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.

\When Boston lets go of the rope, they respond in the next game by locking down the opposing team. I’m expecting no different on Sunday night.

Celtics vs Hawks Game 4 Over/Under analysis

Through three games, this has been one of the highest-scoring series of the first round. It was clear from the outset that Boston’s combination of shooting and physical advantages at just about every position would put them in a strong position to score, and that’s been born out in every contest, including their Game 3 loss. 

The Hawks had an abysmal shooting performance in Game 1, but under Quin Snyder, they continue to take the right shots and eat on the offensive glass. While both teams shot incredibly well in Game 3, it was the Hawks’ 34.4% offensive rebounding rate that pushed them over the edge.

I’m doubtful the Celtics will allow themselves to get beaten up on the boards by Atlanta’s wings again, just as I’m doubtful the Hawks can replicate anything close to their Game 3 shooting performance.

The Celtics will lock in on defense, which alone might be enough to cash the Under at 232, but the Hawks have yet to prove they can remotely slow down Boston’s offense. I’m too wary of the Celtics running up the score to suggest betting the Under.

Celtics vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Celtics are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Hawks.

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