Our NBA player prop projections are ready for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons, with the model highlighting several high-value spots.
By analyzing the data against current market lines, we’ve identified where the strongest edges exist.
These Cavaliers vs. Pistons predictions are driven by numbers instead of guesswork.
If you’re building your card, here are the model’s top NBA picks for Tuesday, May 5.
Cavaliers vs Pistons computer picks for Game 1
 Cavaliers |
 Pistons |
|---|---|
| Mitchell u25.5 points -115 |
Cunningham o26.5 points -125 |
| Mobley o8.5 rebounds -102 |
Duren o10.5 rebounds -115 |
| Harden o2.5 3-pointers -130 |
Robinson o2.5 3-pointers -105 |
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Cavaliers Game 1 computer picks
Donovan Mitchell Under 25.5 points (-115)
Projection: 23.3 points
This season, opposing starting shooting guards have shot just 27.6% from three against the Detroit Pistons (the second-worst mark in the league) making it a difficult matchup for Donovan Mitchell to clear his points prop in Game 1.
Evan Mobley Over 8.5 rebounds (-102)
Projection: 8.59 rebounds
The Cleveland Cavaliers have led the league with 15.0 offensive rebounds per game over their last five outings, and Evan Mobley made his presence felt on the glass against the Raptors — a trend he’ll look to carry into the Eastern Conference semifinals.
James Harden Over 2.5 3-pointers (-130)
Projection: 2.61 3-pointers
This season, opposing starting point guards have averaged 6.2 three-point attempts per game against the Pistons — the 10th-most in the league — setting up a favorable spot for James Harden to thrive from deep. When Harden gets it going, the Cavaliers tend to follow, so expect him to set the tone early and clear the Over on this prop.
Pistons Game 1 computer picks
Cade Cunningham Over 26.5 points (-125)
Projection: 28.7 points
Cade Cunningham is on a tear, averaging 32.2 points over his last five games — a jump of 8.2 from his season average.
The matchup with Cleveland only adds fuel to the fire, as opposing starting point guards have shot a league-high 41.4% from three against the Cavaliers this year, setting Cunningham up nicely to boost his scoring from beyond the arc in Game 1.
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Jalen Duren Over 10.5 rebounds (-115)
Projection: 12.06 rebounds
Detroit ranks third in the league with 13.0 offensive rebounds per game, and as the Pistons’ top presence on the glass, Jalen Duren will look to assert himself early — battling Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen by owning the boards and setting the tone inside.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 3-pointers (-105)
Projection: 3.22 3-pointers
Duncan Robinson cleared the Over in five of seven games during the opening round against Orlando, but this matchup brings a different kind of challenge. Cleveland’s defense is far more disciplined on the perimeter, closing out hard and limiting clean looks from deep, which will put added pressure on Robinson to find space.
If Detroit wants to keep pace, they’ll need Robinson to get going early from beyond the arc and knock down shots against a Cavaliers defense that won’t give him many easy opportunities.
How to watch Cavaliers vs Pistons Game 1
| Location | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Tuesday, May 5, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | Peacock/NBC |
Not intended for use in MA.
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