Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Darius Gets Back to Dimin'

The Eastern Conference quarterfinal series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and New York Knicks has been a defensive slugfest so far.

At least one team has failed to crack the century mark on the scoreboard in all three games, including both sides in a 99-79 grinder of a win for New York at home in Game 3.

The total for Game 4 on Sunday afternoon reflects that stingy style of play with the lowest Over/Under number the NBA has dealt basketball bettors all season.

I look at that low, low total as well as the point spread and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Cavaliers at Knicks on April 23.

Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 4 best odds

Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 4 picks and predictions

The Cleveland Cavaliers' offense needs Darius Garland to respond in Game 4 the very same way he did after a slow Game 1 effort.

Cleveland’s point guard scored 17 points and dished out only one assist in the series opener but bounced back with a 32-point effort in which he also accounted for seven assists in the Cavs’ lone victory in Game 2.

Garland is coming off a frigid 4-for-21 from the field for only 10 points in Game 3, adding three assists to three turnovers.

He averaged 7.3 assists per game after the All-Star break and must take the same control of Cleveland’s offense, which was completely disjointed facing the unfriendly Madison Square Garden and a smothering New York Knicks interior defense on Friday.

The plodding pace of this series hasn’t helped Cleveland’s backcourt and New York had success plugging up the paint with its size in Game 3. The Cavaliers will look to Garland to pick up the tempo and see if they can get the Knicks on their heels and not allow them to set up in the halfcourt this afternoon.

Garland’s inconsistent efforts on offense have his assist prop for Game 4 at 6.5 — his lowest assist Over/Under since March 23 with the Cleveland point guard drawing totals of 7.5 and 8.5 in the eight games since. Before the start of the playoffs, Garland had recorded 7+ in 10 of his final 15 games of the regular season.

Given the low game total for Game 4, there isn’t a lot of scoring expected to go around and the Cavs own an assist-to-field goal rate of just 59% so far in the playoffs, but player projections have Garland handing out at least seven assists with highs closer to nine from some models. My Game 4 projection isn’t that glowing, but I do have him on the other side of 7.5 dimes tonight.

Garland could have had more than three assists in Game 3 if not for that bad shooting night from his teammates. And while New York did play fantastic defense, the young Cavs’ postseason jitters did show up in their first road game of the playoffs, with the team shooting just 19-for-56 on uncontested shots.

Cleveland started to get more comfortable in hostile territory in the final two frames of Game 3, scoring 47 second-half points. That’s not a lot but a far better output than the 32 points put forth in the first half.

I expect Garland and Cavs to play much looser and quicker tonight, with the point guard getting his teammates involved for seven or more assists. Garland’s Over 6.5 assists is priced as high as -134 but you can find it as low as -115 juice if you shop around.

My best bet: Darius Garland Over 6.5 assists (-115)

Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 4 spread analysis

After splitting the first two games in Cleveland, the Knicks returned serve with a 99-79 victory at home in Game 3, easily covering as closing 2-point favorites.

The Game 4 spread hit the board shortly after that result, with New York laying -3 before action on the Cavaliers shrunk this line to -2 at some sharper online markets while other shops are dealing the Knicks -2.5 as of Sunday morning.

While Cleveland entered this first-round series as the top-ranked defense in the NBA, it has been New York’s defense that has made the difference. The Knicks turned up that intensity in Game 3’s win at home, limiting the Cavs to less than 39% success from the floor — including 7-for-33 from 3-point range — and forcing 21 turnovers in Friday’s 20-point blowout.

The homecourt helped out New York’s sputtering attack as well, with the Knicks shooting 47% from the field for 99 points after shooting just 39.5% in the two games in Cleveland. New York converted Cleveland’s mistakes into 28 points off turnovers and the Cavs’ lack of scoring depth was exposed as the starters struggled and the bench provided a collective 14 points in support.

The Cavs are getting just 21.5 points per game off the bench while the Knicks reserves have stepped up with 34.7 points an outing.

The slim one-possession spreads for Game 3 and 4 in New York are a notable adjustment from the Cleveland -5 and -6 lines set for the opening two games in Ohio. According to Covers Consensus, 65% of picks are siding with the Knicks heading into this 1 p.m. ET tipoff today. 

Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 4 Over/Under analysis

The low-scoring nature of this quarterfinal series keeps trimming the total and now NBA bettors are facing the lowest Over/Under number they’ve seen all season. The total hit the board as big as 207.5 points and has slimmed as low as 205.5 at some sharper shops online.

Basketball bettors haven’t seen a number this low since last postseason and looking at last year — both the regular season and postseason — totals of 206.5 or shorter have produced a 26-33 Over/Under mark (56% Unders).

The low total is warranted considering the defensive play from both teams as well as the overall plodding pace of the offenses so far this season. The Cavs and Knicks have combined for a pace rating of 94.0 through three games and Cleveland’s 79-point effort was the first time a team has scored less than 80 points since April 2022.

The Over/Under numbers have been hacked down from 216 in Game 1, 213.5 in Game 2, and 212 in Game 3 with all three contests staying well below their respective totals.

The Knicks seem to be fighting fire with fire, tightening up their defensive play at home in Game 3. New York leaned on its interior defense to shut down the paint, giving up only 48 points inside and recording five blocks.

Cleveland couldn’t get easier looks inside to thaw an ice-cold shooting effort from its perimeter players and with a shallow support pool to pull points from, the Cavaliers didn’t have anywhere else to go for offense.

Star guards Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell combined for only 39 points on a collective 13-for-40 shooting from the floor, including just 3-for-15 from distance.

The Knicks’ offensive efforts weren’t sterling by any means. New York made just 10 of its 33 attempts from beyond the arc and has been subdued from outside in the series, shooting 27.5% from the perimeter. New York went from making more than 14 triples per contest in the post-break schedule to just 8.3 average makes from deep the past three games.

Cavaliers vs Knicks betting trend to know

The Over is 10-4 in the Cavaliers’ last 14 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Knicks.

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