The Miami Heat almost pulled off the upset against the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, but thanks to a legacy game from Nicolas Batum, their only path to the playoffs left is by defeating the Chicago Bulls tonight.
Can the Heat overcome Jimmy Butler's injury and advance to take on the Boston Celtics? Find out in my free NBA picks and Bulls vs. Heat predictions on Friday, April 19.
Bulls vs Heat predictions
My best bet
Heat -1.5 (-110 at Caesars)
My analysis
This is a tricky spot for the Miami Heat, and you wonder where their heads will be as an organization. Not only did they blow a lead against the Philadelphia 76ers and a first-round matchup against the New York Knicks, but if they defeat the Chicago Bulls on Friday, they will have to face the Boston Celtics without their best player: Jimmy Butler.
Butler will be out for several weeks after injuring his MCL in the first game of the Play-In Tournament. If this were any other franchise, I could see them potentially going 1-2-3 Cancun and calling it a season, but this is Heat Culture. They won't go away that easily. All of the attention is on the Butler injury, but the Bulls also experienced a crucial loss on Wednesday, and that's why I'm going after the Heat on the spread at -1.5.
Alex Caruso, one of the NBA's premier perimeter defenders, suffered a significant ankle sprain against the Atlanta Hawks when he was truck-sticked by his own teammate, Andre Drummond, in the open court. Butler is a big loss for the Heat, but it won't be as magnified if Caruso can't suit up for the Bulls. The Heat struggle to score in the half-court, and if they were without Butler and the Bulls were able to deploy Caruso on Tyler Herro, this would be a big problem for the offense.
The Heat will survive and advance because of their favorable matchups with the Bulls. Bam Adebayo will be able to take advantage of Nikola Vucevic on the interior, and Herro will be able to generate offense on the perimeter without Caruso at the point of the attack. The Heat should also have Duncan Robinson back after he was apparently cleared to play on Wednesday but never actually saw any minutes.
The Butler loss stings, but the number is adjusted for it. The Heat should be closer to a 3-point favorite, and there is a chance they get some reinforcements in Robinson and maybe even Terry Rozier.
Bulls vs Heat same-game parlay (SGP)
Heat -1.5
Bam Adebayo Over 20.5 points
Nikola Vucevic Under 11.5 rebounds
If the Heat are going to win without Butler, they will need either Adebayo or Herro to step up on the offensive end. Adebayo has an advantageous matchup against Vucevic. I mean, I just watched Clint Capela score 22 points against the Bulls on Wednesday. I expect Adebayo's usage to be much higher than normal because of the Butler injury and the Vucevic matchup. Adebayo has been trading at around 18.5 points with Butler in the lineup, and with Butler out, we're only looking at a 2-point difference.
For the third leg of this SGP, I'm rolling with Vucevic Under 11.5 rebounds, with a hat tip to Adam Scherer, who gave out this bet on our NBA prop picks release show here at Covers powered by EV Analytics. Vucevic is projected to grab 9.6 rebounds against the Heat, which is well below the total of 11.5 where he is currently trading.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Bulls vs Heat odds
Bulls vs Heat live odds
Bulls vs Heat opening odds
- Spread: Chicago +2.5 | Miami -2.5
- Moneyline: Chicago +116 | Miami -136
- Over/Under: Over 208 | Under 208
Bulls vs Heat spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Heat opened as a 2.5-point favorite on FanDuel, but once the news dropped that Butler would officially miss this game, we saw this line start to move down.
- The total opened at 208 at FanDuel, and we have seen it move three points toward the Under to 205.
- There are still several players tagged as questionable for Friday's game, including Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu, and Rozier, so as we get more clarity on their injuries, we should continue to see the total and spread move.
Bulls vs Heat trend
The Miami Heat have hit the 1H Moneyline in 55 of their last 100 games (+14.25 Units / 9% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bulls vs. Heat.
Bulls vs Heat game info
| Location: | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Friday, 4-19-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Bulls vs Heat latest injuries
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