Bucks vs Heat Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Return of Giannis Pushes Spread Too Far

Giannis Antetokounmpo to the rescue? The Milwaukee Bucks expect their Greek superstar to return to the lineup tonight after missing the last two games with a back contusion suffered from a high fall in Game 1, and they need him as they trail the Miami Heat 2-1 in this first-round series.

Will Giannis be enough to even the series on the road?

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs Heat on April 24.

Bucks vs Heat Game 4 best odds

Bucks vs Heat Game 4 picks and predictions

Buy on bad news, sell on good. It is a tried-and-true, though counter-intuitive, sports gambling approach that could not be much more applicable than it will be in Miami tonight.

The Monday morning optimism around Giannis Antetokounmpo’s return bumped this spread from favoring the Bucks by four points on Sunday morning all the way to -7.5 on Monday afternoon. Yes, he is a two-time MVP. Yes, he should be in the top three of MVP voting again this year. Yes, he won the NBA Finals with one of the most dominating performances in a clinching game ever.

But is he worth 3.5 points on the road? For that matter, some books even opened with the Bucks as just -3.5 favorites late Saturday. How much of this boost is tied to Giannis?

The thought behind “buy on bad news, sell on good,” is that the public overreacts to big news items like this. The world hears Giannis is returning and rushes to bet the Bucks, even though the sportsbooks were already moving toward Milwaukee before Monday’s injury optimism. The early-morning line of -5.5 might have been the right midpoint for his return, but then the public kept playing it, and hence -7.5 can now be found at many books.

Or, to put that more precisely, +7.5 can be found at many books on the Heat.

Miami has played well at home of late, going 6-2 against the spread since March 15. That was a distinct shift from their struggles for much of the season, going 10-24-2 ATS before that. Straight-up, the Heat went 27-14 at home in the regular season.

Expecting a Miami win tonight might be a bit ambitious — best found at +280 at BetMGM — but keeping this game within this inflated spread should be a reality. If nothing else, this is where the value is. Giannis should boost the number, but not by four points, not in the playoffs, and not on the road. When Milwaukee was favored by 5.5 points on Monday morning, that made sense. Now at 7.5, that’s just too much.

My best bet: Heat +7.5 (-110 at Caesars)

Bucks vs Heat Game 4 spread analysis

Miami’s recent ATS success at home includes going 2-0 as underdogs, both ATS and straight-up. Including those, the Heat went 4-2 ATS as home underdogs this season and 3-3 SU, with one of those losses coming by a point.

Milwaukee went 19-19-4 ATS on the road this season, a mark made much worse since late March. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games, favored in four of them. And it is not like Milwaukee could cruise into the playoffs a la the Denver Nuggets; they were fighting for seeding with the Boston Celtics into the last week of the season. They just could not meet bookmakers’ expectations when traveling late in the year.

And let’s reiterate tonight, this line has leaped. Giannis was always likely to play tonight. He was always trending this way when books opened late Saturday with Milwaukee favored by just 3.5 points and then moved to -4.0 or -4.5 on Sunday. That spread already had some Giannis thoughts included in it.

Bucks vs Heat Game 4 Over/Under analysis

Milwaukee’s recent road ATS struggles coincided with an Over trend. The Bucks’ last five road games all went Over their totals, as did nine of their last 11.

Every game in this series has also gone Over its total, much credit to Jimmy Butler. Averaging 30 points per game while shooting 60% is, dare it be said, Giannis-esque. This Timberwolves fan may forever hold a grudge against Butler, but that is mostly because it is clear he will always deliver in the playoffs.

These two teams may have defensive reputations, but both have fallen off on that end late this year. Since March 15, the Heat ranked No. 22 and the Bucks ranked No. 19 in team defensive ratings, per Statmuse. This total has recognized all this, moving from 217.0 late Saturday to 218.5 on the news of Giannis’s return. But that 1.5-point jump feels more in line with an understandable boost from the Greek Freak, and thus still within territory to continue riding these Over trends.

Bucks vs Heat betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Milwaukee’s last five games, as well as 8-0 in Miami’s last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.

Bucks vs Heat Game 4 game info

Bucks vs Heat Game 4 key injuries

Pages related to this topic