Best NBA Player Props Today: Bloom's Off DeRozan

Prop bet #1: Mercy rule

For my leading bet on Sunday, I’m going with a play that might seem counterintuitive by shorting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against the Detroit Pistons. On the face of that, that might seem off. The Pistons are after all among the worst defenses in the NBA while SGA has been unguardable and has a legitimate chance in the NBA MVP odds.

These Shai Gilgeous-Alexander odds are banking on a higher than usual scoring performance from Shai, but I think that rather unlikely. Not because Shai can’t beat the Pistons' defense, he can of course, and all too easily. 

The disparity in quality between these two teams is such that I expect the competitive portion of this game to last less than one half. Once the blowout is fully on, the Oklahoma City Thunder happily ride their bench to big minutes to save Shai’s legs.

Not only do the Thunder have a point differential that is more than 20 points higher than the Pistons’, but OKC gets off to great starts while Detroit struggles early. The difference in first quarter net rating between these two teams is 17.1 points. If things go to form — and the Thunder have not made a habit of playing with their food — this game is going to be over before SGA plays 25 minutes. 

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Under 32.5 points (-115 at SIA)

Prop bet #2: DeMar’s decline?

Despite being under .500 for almost the entire season, the Chicago Bulls have been in the headlines a lot lately. There’s the seemingly never-ending Zach LaVine trade drama on one hand and the breakout season by Coby White on the other. 

But those have served to paper over something pretty concerning for the Bulls' future: DeMar DeRozan might finally be suffering age-related decline.

DeMar resuscitated his career on the Bulls after some anonymous years on the San Antonio Spurs, even earning All-NBA honors. But DeRozan hasn’t even sniffed the “also ran” list for this year’s All-Star team, and with good reason.

DeRozan has an effective field goal percentage below 50% for the first time in five years. And his patented midrange jumper has fallen off from the high 40s to just 43%. As a player who barely shoots 3s and only rarely gets to the rim, that drop off is significant. 

So is his downturn in usage rate. DeMar is using 26.3% of the Bulls' possessions when he’s on the court, another low watermark relative to the last several years of his career.

He still has big games, but they’re few and far between. These DeMar DeRozan odds at 25.5 points are at a total that he’s only exceeded three times in his last 17 games. 

That the Portland Trail Blazers have a flammable backcourt is clearly the reason, but the mere fact that Portland’s defense is so easy to break makes it just as likely that the scoring for the Bulls will be more distributed among the rest of the team. 

DeMar DeRozan prop: Under 25.5 points (-120 at SIA)

Prop bet #3: Barrett’s boards

The New York Knicks and Toronto Raptors have so far walked away happy after their trade a few weeks back, with all three key pieces of O.G. Anunoby, Immanuel Quickley, and RJ Barrett playing high-level basketball for their new teams.

RJ’s play has in some ways been the biggest revelation because while he’s shown flashes of strong play for the Knicks before, he is playing his best basketball of the season for the Raptors and has shown remarkable consistency.

And it’s not just scoring the ball either, which is primarily what Barrett is known for. Barrett has had a somewhat lackluster floor game for a wing with his physical profile, so it’s encouraging that he’s made one major jump for Toronto by improving his rebounding.

If current levels hold, RJ will finish with career high rates on both the offensive and defensive glass this season. For Toronto, Barrett is rebounding an absurd 16.4% of opponent misses, placing him in the 98th percentile among all wings per Cleaning the Glass.

It’s translating to raw production too. Barrett has had seven or more rebounds in five of his last seven games and is averaging 7.2 over his last 10. These RJ Barrett odds are perhaps not accounting for RJ’s new role for Toronto as their go to transition offensive weapon, empowered to grab the defensive board and attack full court whenever possible. 

The Atlanta Hawks are also one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the Association, so I like RJ’s chances of crashing in from the wings for a couple on offensive glass as well.

RJ Barrett prop: Over 6.5 rebounds (-120 at SIA)