The Minnesota Timberwolves aim for a knockout punch on the Golden State Warriors at home in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series tonight.
In Minnesota’s arsenal of punches, Anthony Edwards is a thunderous uppercut and has landed cleanly on the Warriors' chin the past two games, scoring 30 and 36 points in T-Wolves’ wins.
While Ant is filling the points column, I’m looking across his box score and focusing on his rebounding output for Game 5 with my favorite Anthony Edwards props, NBA picks, and Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions on Wednesday, May 14.
Anthony Edwards player prop picks
- Best bet
Anthony Edwards u6.5 rebounds
(-115) - SGP pick
Edwards u6.5 rebounds
Edwards 3+ threes
Edwards 5+ assists
(+325)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Anthony Edwards best bet
Anthony Edwards Under 6.5 rebounds (-115 at bet365)
Anthony Edwards was all over the glass in the opening two games of the series, snatching a total of 23 rebounds against a smaller Golden State Warriors frontcourt.
But with Stephen Curry going down for Golden State, the Minnesota Timberwolves’ defensive assignments have been shuffled as the Warriors opt for a larger lineup. Minnesota has matched that size, pushing Edwards away from the rim and allowing those taller talents to round up rebounds.
His rebounding chances went from an average of 14.0 in the first two games to just 7.0 in the last two, recording four rebounds in both Game 3 and 4. He’s also been less of a threat on the offensive glass due to a spike in his perimeter play.
After an active series on the glass versus the L.A. Lakers (he averaged 8.4 rebounds in Round 1), Edwards' rebounding prop total started at 6.5 O/U in Game 1 and jumped to 7.5 O/U in Games 2 and 3. Despite his decline in boards and the shift in size the past two games, bookies aren't really trimming that total for Game 5.
His player projections sit pretty much right on his rebounding prop total of 6.5, with a low of 5.4. I believe the floor could be even lower if this sizable spread has anything to say.
Oddsmakers have installed Minnesota as an 11-point home favorite, which means a potential blowout is on the way. Should the Timberwolves bust this game wide open, Edwards and the rest of the starters could see their minutes trimmed in the final quarter.
On the season, Edwards averaged fewer than six rebounds and before the playoffs started, he grabbed seven or more boards only three times in his final 22 games.
Anthony Edwards same-game parlay
Anthony Edwards Under 6.5 rebounds
Anthony Edwards 3+ threes
Anthony Edwards 5+ assists
Edwards’ rebounding chances have been cut in half the past two outings with the Warriors going big without Curry. He’s had four boards in each of the past two games.
Edwards has seen a spike in 3-point shooting in the last two outings, making 11 of 25 shots from distance.
The Dubs will try to clamp down on Edwards and that adjustment could make him more of a facilitator, with projections sitting between 5.0 and 5.5 dimes.
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