Atlanta United vs Inter Miami Predictions and Picks for Tonight’s MLS Matchup

Atlanta United are struggling mightily to get anything in the net this season, and with their top forward out with injury, our MLS picks expect Inter Miami to shut the door completely.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
May 29, 2024 • 10:43 ET • 4 min read
Drake Callender MLS
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Herons of Inter Miami are unbeaten in their last eight and showed they can win without Lionel Messi and his Barcelona crew as they went into Vancouver and emerged with a victory. Now they make the long trek home to host an Atlanta side that is in turmoil and has gone nine matches without a win. 

Find out why both streaks are likely to continue in our Inter Miami vs Atlanta United predictions for Wednesday, May 29. 

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami picks and predictions

My best bet:
Inter Miami clean sheet (+195 at TonyBet)

My analysis
Atlanta United have scored just 16 goals this season despite an xG of 19.9 to their name, with a fourth-worst -3.9 G-xG mark. Giorgos Giakoumakis is also out injured, making matters worse for the Five Stripes. It also makes the odds of an Inter Miami clean sheet too good to pass up. 

Atlanta United have failed to score in four of their six away matches so far in league play, with a solitary goal in each of the other two fixtures. Their 5.3 xG in away matches are tied with Nashville for the lowest in the Eastern Conference, as they’ve struggled to create chances and even more so to put them away.

Inter Miami have shown marked improvement at the defensive end the past few matches. Before their win at Vancouver, they blanked DC United 1-0 in a hard-fought match where they managed to keep Christian Benteke off the board after a scoreless draw at Orlando City.

The clean sheets doubled their total for the season, with three of them coming at home. Now they return to Chase Stadium with their three best players fully rested. That’s extremely important, given the 12-hour round trip and the age of the former Barcelona stars.

Lionel Messi and company tore Atlanta to shreds last summer in their Leagues Cup match, winning 4-0 as the Argentine scored twice in the opening 22 minutes and led 3-0 at the break. If they’re able to replicate that early onslaught here, Atlanta may lose all will to fight.

There are serious problems in the Atlanta locker room, and manager Gonzalo Pineda is under fire due to the club’s worst start in history. Their two best players are both trying to leave to move to other leagues, and they simply aren’t a cohesive unit right now.  

You can’t go against Messi, Sergio Busquets, and Luis Suarez without a sound game plan and the will to execute it. I’ll back Inter Miami to get the lead early and cruise as Atlanta takes another loss without a goal to show for it. 

Lionel Messi odds for tonight


Despite not having a goal or assist in his last two starts, the market prices for Messi to score have continued to degrade. Messi is priced between -150 and -200 to find the back of the net, prohibitive prices for even a player of his quality.

Messi has attempted 4+ shots in eight straight MLS fixtures, including five off the bench against Colorado. However, he’s topped five shots just once — something you’d have to back him to do to find any value here, as 5+ shots for Messi is priced around -150 as well. 

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Atlanta United vs Inter Miami same-game parlay (SGP)

Atlanta United zero goals

Inter Miami Over 1 goal

Lionel Messi to score anytime

Atlanta United have been hugely fortunate not to get trounced away from home. They’ve conceded just six times in six away matches, despite an xGA of 10.1 as teams failed to finish chances. That won’t be the case here as Miami have scored 22 times at home, and Atlanta will be without suspended goalkeeper Brad Guzan. 

While I wouldn’t bet on Messi to score outright, I do expect him to find the back of the net and added him to the parlay. He was visibly tired the past few matches, but prior to his two-match scoreless run, he’d bagged 10 goals in seven matches, along with eight assists. He scored twice on Atlanta last year, and he’ll get another one Wednesday. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami odds

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami live odds

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami opening odds

  • Moneyline: Atlanta United +375 | Inter Miami -160
  • Draw: +275
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-154) | Under 2.5 (+120)

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami side and Over/Under analysis

  • After opening around -160 on the 3-way money line, Inter Miami is now priced at -208 or higher. Atlanta United is getting +475 to win, while the draw pays +425 after opening at +275.
  • Atlanta United have taken just four points from their nine-match winless run and have lost five of their last seven.
  • The total of 2.5 sees the Over juiced to an unheard of -300, with Over 3.5 even going to -120.
  • None of Atlanta’s six away fixtures have gone past two goals, while there have been 4+ goals in five of Miami’s last seven home matches.

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami game info

Location: Chase Stadium, Fort Lauderdale, FL
Date: Wednesday, May 29, 2024
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Apple TV
Weather: Temp 86F, heat index 93F, wind 8-15 mph, humidity 71%, POP 20%

Atlanta United vs Inter Miami key injuries

Atlanta United: Brad Guzan GK (Out), Giorgos Giakoumakis F (Out), Tyler Wolff M (Out).
Inter Miami: Diego Gomez M (Out), Facundo Farias M (Out), Ian Fray D (Doubtful).

Not intended for use in MA.
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