Although the New York Yankees are road favorites, I am eyeing the underdog value with the Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians just proved their high-contact approach works against Gerrit Cole, and while Slade Cecconi is an inferior arm, the Yanks' offense is vulnerable without their captain in the order.
Read all about it in my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 9.
Who will win Yankees vs Guardians today: Guardians moneyline (+105)
I backed the Cleveland Guardians in this same matchup already last week and don’t see a reason to change now. The Guardians got Gerrit Cole for four runs last, and their high-contact approach continues to exploit his limited room for error.
While Cole’s 2.49 xERA looks elite, that 22.0% ground-ball rate is a massive concern against a team that can elevate the ball, but more importantly, puts the ball in play with the lowest whiff rate in the sport.
Slade Cecconi won’t blow anyone away, but the New York Yankees are severely depleted without Aaron Judge. Play to -110
COVERS INTEL: Cleveland’s projected lineup has six hitters at a 13.8% strikeout rate or lower, giving the Guardians the contact depth to keep testing Cole’s low-whiff profile.
Yankees vs Guardians Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
My eyes are on the Over here, as both lineups possess a viable path to production despite the absence of Judge.
Slade Cecconi’s 4.47 xERA and mediocre 18.4% strikeout rate suggest the Yankees will have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play and manufacture traffic on the basepaths.
On the other side, Cleveland can repeat their recent success against Cole by sticking to their established blueprint. I’m comfortable taking the Over up to 9 at +100.
- ML/RL bets: 28-22, +5.71 units
- Over/Under bets: 31-19, +15.02 units
Yankees vs Guardians odds
- Moneyline: Yankees -112 | Guardians +108
- Run line: Yankees -1.5 (+144) | Guardians +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-112) | Under 8.5 (+108)
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Cleveland Guardians have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI).
Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians.
How to watch Yankees vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, June 9, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Gerrit Cole (1-1, 2.00 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Slade Cecconi (3-5, 4.92 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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