After an absolute beatdown in Atlanta, the White Sox enter Saturday’s game against one of the best pitchers in baseball as massive underdogs in the MLB odds. Can an improving top-line starter offer Chicago any hope here, or should we expect more of the same?
Let’s break down White Sox vs. Braves in our MLB picks and predictions for July 15.
White Sox vs Braves odds
White Sox vs Braves predictions
Lance Lynn is starting to figure things out for the White Sox, but he’s not quite there yet.
The righty has been able to produce some quality strikeout numbers in recent weeks, racking up 40 punchouts in 28 2/3 innings last month, and striking out 11 Blue Jays over seven scoreless innings his last time out nine days ago.
But the strikeouts haven’t been enough to mask the issues with hart-hit balls that Lynn has been having. His .422 xwOBA on contact is very poor, and his 10.5% barrel rate is by far the worst of his career. It’s not as if he’s allowing a ton more fly balls, the quality of contact has just been much better against him.
The Braves have been one of the best in baseball about not striking out, ranking seventh-best in baseball in that regard. The White Sox have not, punching out in nearly 24% of plate appearances. Between two strikeout pitchers, that will be very important, and it ultimately leads me to side with Spencer Strider and Atlanta.
My best bet: Braves -1.5 (-140 via DraftKings)
White Sox vs Braves same-game parlay
Braves -1.5
Strider 10+ Strikeouts
Albies 2+ Total Bases
I’m particularly hung up on the White Sox’ poor strikeout numbers, and over the last 30 days they’ve been even worse. They’re punching out in 25.3% of plate appearances, which puts them sixth-worst in the league over the last 30 days. They’re going to be no match for Strider, who is the most dominant strikeout pitcher in the game today.
Strider has averaged 10 punchouts per start over his last three outings, and should have no issues here against a very swing-happy Chicago side. With the way this team’s hit, too, Strider should work very deep into this one and easily hit 10.
Then, there’s Ozzie Albies. The main issue for Lynn this season has been his cutter, which has been torched for a .464 xSLG, and his fastball which has registered a .482 xSLG. Albies ranks second in all of baseball with a run value of six against cutters and 21st against the four-seamer. He should be primed for a big day.
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White Sox vs Braves moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Ultimately I’m going to side with the Under in this game. Lynn has really sputtered in 2023, but it would seem his blowups are past him. He’s allowed seven or more runs three times this season, but they’ve all come prior to June.
Yes, Lynn allowed five earned runs twice in the month of June, but his strikeout numbers have recovered and he’s still generating plenty of swings and misses on pitches in the zone. I expect a decent enough showing here, and the chances for an Atlanta letdown after a nine-run field day are very real.
Atlanta may have a .277 ISO over the last 30 days, but it also loves to put the ball on the ground, which should help Lynn a bit here.
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Trend to know
The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 18 games at home (+15.05 Units / 72% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for White Sox vs. Braves
White Sox vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Cumberland, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, July 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Lance Lynn (5-8, 6.03 ERA): Lynn may be striking out a ton of batters, but he allowed seven home runs in 28 2/3 innings pitched in the month of June after allowing seven in 34 2/3 innings in May, and seven in 27 April innings. His last start was his best of the year, as he allowed two baserunners against Toronto with 11 strikeouts.
Spencer Strider (11-2, 3.44 ERA): The right-hander wasn’t at his best in June with a 5.46 ERA, but he’s turned things back around with 20 strikeouts in 13 innings this month. He’s pitched to a 1.38 ERA in July and has yet to allow a home run.
