I'm coming off a 1-2 SU day yesterday, but life has been good on the strikeout and pitcher MLB player props this summer. It's September, the call-ups are coming, the leashes are all over the place, and that's giving us a lot of edges and angles to sort through.
I'm targeting both starters in that Phillies vs. Diamondbacks game, as each starter could easily hit a triple-digit pitch count, while Eric Lauer's move to the bullpen and then back to the rotation could hurt his leash.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Jesus Luzardo |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | +125 |
 Eduardo Rodriguez |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +120 |
 Eric Lauer |
Under 15.5 outs | -105 |
Strikeout prop: Jesus Luzardo Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)
I'll get square to open things up here with Jesus Luzardo, a pitcher well above a K per inning, to go deep and rack up seven or more punchouts at plus money today.
The form is elite, as he's hit this in 90% of his last 10 starts dating back to July 4. His leash is also massive, as he's thrown 100+ pitches in six of his last seven starts and gone beyond 18 outs in all but one of those games.
The workload might concern some, but not me today. He's eating innings of late, the Phillies are in a divisional race, and the Philadelphia bullpen is overworked coming into tonight's matchup.
Philly burned five arms last night, and it's possible four are unavailable. It's Luzardo and his 100-pitch leash to the rescue.
If he goes six frames, it will be tough not to get seven punchouts, especially with his dominant road splits. He owns a 1.79 ERA and 11.6 K/9 away from home, and a big reason why Dustin Saracini is also backing the Under.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCSP
Strikeout prop: Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+120)
This should be the best pitching matchup on the slate today, and Eduardo Rodriguez is going to have his leash extended if he's pitching well — with the Diamondbacks sitting a half-game out of the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League.
He's coming off a 105-pitch outing, although even that wasn't his longest leash in August, when he reached 115 pitches.
He struck out nine Cubs in that start, and over his five Aug. starts, he averaged more than 100 pitches per game and a K per inning. The Phillies are a lefty-heavy lineup and an average offense against southpaws.
The projection on E-Rod is +EV even on a 93-pitch leash, but he hasn't thrown fewer than that since his first start after the All-Star break.
Rodriguez is also a key reason why Jon Melter is backing the Diamondbacks tonight.
Anything at plus money is a good bet here.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: DBACKS.TV, NBCSP
Pitcher out prop: Eric Lauer Under 15.5 outs (-105)
Eric Lauer was just sent to the bullpen, where he threw six outs on 51 pitches. However, because of a Roki Sasaki injury, he'll join the rotation and get the start today, but I'm not expecting that leash to be long at all.
The lefty wasn't getting the longest of leashes to begin with, and now he's not as stretched out after that 51-pitch outing. Over his last 11 starts, his median pitch count was 89, and after yesterday's day off, the Dodgers' bullpen is loaded and rested. It has thrown just 34 pitches since Sunday.
The projections have him at 78 pitches and 14 outs, making a fair price well below -125.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SportsNet LA, Cardinals.TV
- Prop picks: 27-23, +6.48 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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