It was a clean-sweep here yesterday for +3.05 units and there are some great spots today with a doubleheader early. Let’s dig into the pitcher prop markets.
These are my favorite MLB player props for starting pitchers on Wednesday, April 30.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 30
Mikolas o15.5 outs (+120)
Singer o16.5 outs (-125)
Smith u4.5 Ks (-120)
Today's SP best bets
Cardinals vs. Reds
The angle: Starters in the first game of a doubleheader need to get dep
The move: Miles Mikolas Over 15.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Miles Mikolas projects for Over 16 outs today and is pitching on extra rest. The St. Louis Cardinals will need him to get a little deeper this afternoon as he will start Game 1 of the doubleheader.
Mikolas is coming off an 18-out start and the veteran can be efficient as batters tend to swing early at his offerings because his K potential is not through the roof.
It’s a great price and +EV with the projections. It is GABP but it’s 64 degrees, the wind is blowing in, and it will be an afternoon lineup from the Cincinnati Reds.
Cardinals vs. Reds
The angle: Pitching on extra rest and should see a longer leash
The move: Brady Singer Over 16.5 outs (-125 at DraftKings)
Let’s stay here in Cincinnati in Game 1 of the doubleheader. Brady Singer usually throws 90 pitches but he projects for 96 today and 17.6 total outs. He is on extra rest and went 18 outs on 88 pitches in his last start. He can be efficient as long as the command is locked in.
This number is going to move to 17.5 as 16.5 is no-man’s land for this market. I still like the Over 17.5 to -115. The pitching conditions are good and I’ve had a good track record this season betting on volume in Game 1 starters in doubleheaders.
Brewers vs. White Sox
The angle: Shane Smith might not see 85 pitches and is not a K/inning pitcher
The move: Shane Smith Under 4.5 Ks (-120 at DraftKings)
Chicago White Sox starter Shane Smith projects for 3.8 strikeouts and this Under is moving for a reason. Has gone 3-2 to the Under on this with 22 Ks over 27+ innings. There have been a couple of high-K games that have skewed the perception of his strikeout potential while his .213 BABIP indicates he's about to get hit harder.
The Milwaukee Brewers are a low K% lineup ranking in the bottom third of the league and Smith’s leash is very short. He is averaging just 78 pitches over five starts and has not thrown more than 83 pitches in any of his five turns.
Not intended for use in MA.
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