The summer months are here, it's hot and humid, and there are daily pitcher angles to take advantage of on a full-slate Tuesday.
I'm looking for some volume with a pitcher making his third start since rejoining the rotation, betting on a pitcher I usually back the Under on because of the price, and fading a raw rookie.
These are my best pitcher props and MLB picks for Tuesday, July 8.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for July 8
Eovaldi o1.5 walks allowed (+125)
Keller o4.5 Ks (+132) 
Misiorowski u14.5 outs (+155)
Today's SP best bets
Rangers vs. Angels
The angle: Eovaldi should be back to a full leash and has a tough BB% matchup
The move: Nathan Eovaldi Over 1.5 walks allowed (+125 at DraftKings)
Nathan Eovaldi should be up to his full leash now after making his third start since rejoining the rotation on June 27.
He threw 72 pitches in his last start and projects for around 90 today. He has three walks across his first two starts since injury spanning just eight innings.
Heading into 2025, he was somewhere around a walk every three innings over his last two seasons and should get close to his 18 out average today. The road start helps and so does facing a Top-5 BB% team in the Angels over the last 30 days.
Mike Trout has some IBB walk potential and has totaled 16 walks over his last 13 games He is the key. I’m buying this to +115.
THE BAT also has his Under 4.5 hits (+125), Under 5.5 Ks (+115), and Under 17.5 outs (-125) as all +EV plays based heavily on his projected pitch count of 87 pitches.
Pirates vs. Royals
The angle: Keller's leash is getting longer and he's had success vs. low-K% teams of late
The move: Mitch Keller Over 4.5 strikeouts (+132 at bet365)
This is a bit of a stray line at bet365 but I’d buy this to +120.
Mitch Keller has just 55 Ks over his last 67 innings but a six-inning one-K performance might be throwing that off.
In those 11 games, he has put up six or more Ks in four starts and gone Over this number seven times while hitting four punchouts twice more. He is fairly consistent with his misses, has a safe floor, and is getting a good price here on a tougher K matchup vs. the Royals, which can be too priced in at times.
Looking back at those 11 games, Keller has had seven games vs. teams who rank in the Bottom 10 in K%, and the Pittsburgh starter has gone Over this number five times.
Additionally, his leash is getting longer with three starts of 97+ pitches across his last five turns. The projections are 4.53 Ks on 93 pitches.
Dodgers vs. Brewers
The angle: Misiorowski's walk issues are driving up an already low pitch limit
The move: Jacob Misiorowski Under 14.5 outs (+155 at bet365)
This is a tough number that is going to be sweaty, but there are a few paths for this great plus-money price that I’d play to +140 with THE BAT projecting 12.9 outs on 79 pitches.
The rookie pitcher finally got hit after a pretty easy schedule to begin his MLB career where he allowed three hits across 16 innings to the Cardinals, Twins, and Pirates. He is a very inefficient pitcher who can struggle with command (44 walks in 83 Triple-A innings). He already has 10 walks in 19+ innings and now has to face the Dodgers, who see a lot of pitches and draw walks.
Jacob Misiorowksi has also possibly gotten deeper than the Brewers have wanted because he had been working on some no-hitters in his first two starts. However, after going 11 outs on 72 pitches vs. the Mets in his most-recent start, there are paths of 12 outs and 65-70 pitches if his command is off today vs. a tough lineup.
It will be sweaty, but the plus money makes it worth it.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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