Let’s start another week of fading or backing pitchers only. It’s the best way to bet on baseball, in my opinion, as there is always an angle to look at, especially with a full slate.
Today, I will be focusing on pitchers coming off a start where they threw a season-high on pitches and hope that their efficiency and leash are negatively affected.
These are my three favorite MLB picks for pitcher props for Tuesday, June 17.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for June 17
Abbott u5.5 Ks (-115)
Kremer u4.5 Ks (+100)
Soroka u5.5 Ks (+130)
Today's SP best bets
Twins vs. Reds
The angle: Abbott is coming of a season-high 110 pitches and has a tough setting to dominate.
The move: Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 at bet365)
This is one of my favorite angles at work.
Andrew Abbott is coming off a season-high 110 pitches, which was on the heels of a 100-pitch game two starts ago. Before that, he was averaging 91 pitches per start.
The complete game he just threw could reduce his workload, and the extra innings he has tacked on could hurt his efficiency today.
There are other reasons why I love fading the Reds starter today. It’s a start at a hitters’ ballpark and there is possible rain in the forecast. He has also hit this Over in just five of his 11 starts and only had five punchouts in his 27-out performance one start ago.
His Under 17.5 outs at plus money is also a good place to fade him.
Orioles vs Rays
The angle: Kremer is coming off a season-high 105 pitches and the road has been bad to him.
The move: Dean Kremer Under 4.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
Dean Kremer is also coming off a season-high 105 pitches which is 13 more than his season average. He has hit triple-digits in pitches three times this year and the other times he did it, he totaled just five Ks and had five total walks with 10 runs allowed immediately afterwards.
It’s a road start where his ERA sits at 6.07 compared to 2.90 at home, and the weather is almost 90 degrees with the wind blowing out.
Before settling on the strikeouts, I was close to betting on his Over 1.5 BBA + Over 2.5 earned runs at +144 at DraftKings.
Rockies vs Nationals
The angle: Soroka has battled injuries, is coming of a lengthy start, and rain is in the forecast.
The move: Mike Soroka Under 5.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)
This is the third pitcher I’m targeting that is coming off a season-high in pitches. Mike Soroka has thrown just 167 innings since 2020. He has battled injuries and is not a guy who will go out there every game and throw 100 pitches.
He just threw 102 balls five days ago when his previous starts went for 85, 94, 91, 82, 81, 78, and 83 pitches. He does face the Rockies, so there is some worry here, but efficiency should be down and the leash shorter.
Additionally, Kevin Roth is saying that a delay is very possible at any moment in this game.
His Over 1.5 walks at plus money is another good look, but the rain could shorten his outing and there is no need to push him. He is pitching to a 5.14 ERA to boot.
The Rockies have been looking better of late and also aren’t striking out at the highest rate in baseball over the last 14 days.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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