Monday was a 1-1 SU day for a wash, but today is exciting as we get a doubleheader in Washington this afternoon, and the track record on twin-bills has been great to start the season. Let’s have a day!
These are my favorite pitcher props and MLB picks for Tuesday, May 6.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for May 6
Ortiz o16.5 outs (-105)
Hancock u17.5 outs (-130)
Peterson o1.5 walks allowed (-115)
Today's SP best bets
Guardians vs. Nationals
The angle: Cleveland needs length in the first game of a doubleheader
The move: Luis Ortiz Over 16.5 outs (-105 at DraftKings)
Luis Ortiz got his start pushed back because of the rain yesterday, but he will be asked to get through six innings in the first game of today’s doubleheader.
It’s a road matchup, but it’s an easy one vs. the Washington Nationals. He has been getting a long leash this year, going 100+ pitches in two of his last four games. He has gone Over this number in three of his last five while also striking out 31 batters over his last 21 innings.
It might be unsustainable, but the punchout has helped him out a lot of late.
This total has already moved from 15.5 to 16.5, and THE BAT is projecting 17.1 total outs from the Cleveland right-hander.
Mariners vs. Athletics
The angle: Hancock is a bad pitcher who is constantly pitching stressful innings
The move: Emerson Hancock Under 17.5 outs (-130 at DraftKings)
This is one of the best +EV pitcher out bets on the board today, per THE BAT, which projects for just 15.15 outs. Sutter Health Park projects as one of the best-hitting parks on the slate with temperatures in the mid-80s.
Emerson Hancock is not a strikeout pitcher, with just 60 Ks over 90+ MLB innings. He gets hit hard too, allowing 26 hits over just 17 innings this year. How this man has gotten to 18 outs in back-to-back starts is beyond me.
His Over 2.5 earned runs is also a good play at -120 with a projection of 2.9. He’s allowed 13 runs over four starts.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
The angle: Peterson just saw Arizona, and that lineup walks at a high rate
The move: David Peterson Over 1.5 walks allowed (-115 at Hard Rock)
David Peterson has gone Over this number just two times across his six starts and Under in four straight. However, that's moving the price on this in our favor, and I'd rather project his command with a sample over 2+ seasons, which has him walking 0.40 batters per inning. The Diamondbacks also walk at the second-highest rate in baseball.
Another great angle here is familiarity. Peterson just saw Arizona, and that edge usually lies with the batters, who get to see the lefty again with the last start fresh in their minds.
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