Rockies vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: Yastrzemski Continues to Swing Hot Bat

The Colorado Rockies and San Francisco Giants will finish up a weekend series on Sunday Night Baseball to end the weekend, with MLB odds marking San Fran as the favorite to sweep. 

The Giants are amid a hotly contested Wild Card race in the National League, sitting 2.5 games back from the last playoff spot. Last night, they quickly dispatched this Rockies team, winning by eight runs. Colorado improved this season in some respects but still essentially is playing for nothing in September. It'll enter this game amid one of its cooler streaks of the season as losers of eight of its last 10. 

For this series closer, I'll be looking to the MLB player props market. Find out who I'll be targeting in my MLB picks for the Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants on Sunday, September 10.

Rockies vs Giants odds

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Rockies vs Giants predictions

Right-handed pitcher Peter Lambert last faced the San Francisco Giants in July and gave up three earned runs in relief. Today, he'll see them again from a starting role. It's a Giants team that's at least trying to surge for the postseason and feels ready to do so as it heads down the stretch. 

"We've been leading up to this," Manager Gabe Kapler told the assembled media after Saturday's win. "This is a product of having a more full bench. The depth is not just the lineup. It's been the bench, too." 

It's that bench that we're leaning on here. Mike Yastrzemski has been in and out of the lineup the past month for various reasons. However, after a three-day rest, he's returned to the lineup with a banger. Over the last two games of this series, he's gone six of seven, scored four runs, and brought three in himself.

There are many markets to consider here, a testament to how hot Yastrzemski has been. The one I'd like to focus on is over at DraftKings, and it's the Hits + Runs + RBI market. Yastrzemski Over 1.5 is priced at -125, which I'll happily grab. He's eclipsed this number in three straight games and five of his last eight. I projected this number at -133, so while the edge from my numbers seems small, I love the matchup.

Yastrzemski should be in an excellent spot to factor in from both a runs perspective and a hits perspective. With Lambert on the mound tonight, he's expected to see a high dosage of fastballs, as it's a pitch that Lambert throws nearly 50% of the time. That's a good thing for Yastrzemski. This season, he has the second-highest run value against fastballs on the Giants roster, the third-highest slugging percentage, and the third-highest hard-hit rate against it.

Beyond the hits, the other part is the runs and RBIs. Yastrzemski is well-positioned to get both, but I wanted to focus on runs. Yastrzemski has continued to bat in the lead-off spot, putting him in a great place to cross the plate. That even increases tonight. You know how I discussed the fastball being a pivotal part of this handicap? Well, directly behind Yastrzemski are Wilmer Flores and Joc Pederson — the third and second-best fastball hitters in this Giants lineup.

With Lambert being a fastball-throwing righty who has routinely got shelled this season, this matchup suits Yastrzemski to a T. Grab this prop over at DraftKings — it's easily the best bet in today's game.

My best bet: Mike Yastrzemski Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings)

Rockies vs Giants same-game parlay

Yastrzemski Over 1.5 TB

Pederson Over 0.5 RBI

Giants TT Over 4.5

+475 at DraftKings

Unfortunately, DraftKings won't allow me to use my best bet in a same-game parlay format, so I've worked around it. Given Yastrzemski's hard-hit numbers against the fastball, I'm opting to go with his Over 1.5 bases at a plus-money price to lead off this parlay.

I paired it with Joc Pederson RBI. It seems self-explanatory with the above handicap, but Pederson is in a great spot here to record an RBI. I hate to sound like a broken record, but again, the fastball and how well the players at the top of the San Francisco lineup hit it is the story here. 

I'm finishing things off with the Giants to score at least five runs. This San Francisco offense has been scorching in this series, and I see no reason that doesn't continue here against a suspect pitcher. I projected 5.2 runs, so I'm comfortable using it to round off things. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rockies vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This game has little betting value from a standard moneyline perspective. I see -210 as the best price in the market and would need -205 to lay this number. I've yet to mention Keaton Winn, who will take the mound for the Giants, so let's talk about him here. 

Winn is highly unlucky to be winless on the season. Overall, he's been a pleasant revelation for San Fran, and like his counterpart opposing him, the story of his game is his fastball.

He won't throw it as much as Lambert, but when he does, it's electric with a velocity that puts it in the Top 10% of the league. The Rockies aren't bad against the fastball, but today's lineup may only feature two players batting above league average against it. If I'm making a bet here, it's the Giants' run line. Otherwise, it's a complete skip.

I will play San Francisco's team total at 4.5 at -115 over at FanDuel. I played this also in my same-game parlay, and it's for a good reason. The Giants offense is hot right now, and it's getting a pitcher that's given up over three runs in every start he's made on the year. Sometimes, things don't have to be that complicated, and this is one of those times. However, if you'd like to complicate things, look to the trends for added confidence: The Giants have scored five or more runs in nine of their last ten head-to-head matchups with the Rockies. 

Trend to know

Mike Yastrzemi has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in five of his last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Rockies vs. Giants

Rockies vs Giants game info

Starting pitchers

Peter Lambert (3-6, 5.03 ERA): There's not a ton of positives to say about Lambert this season. He gives up lots of hard contact, ranking near the bottom of the league in barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He doesn't miss many bats, ranking only slightly better than those metrics in whiff rate. The positives? After a stint in the minors, Lambert has improved from his last big league appearance in 2021, where he amassed an ERA over 11 in four starts.

Keaton Winn (0-2, 3.33 ERA): Despite being winless on the year, it's been a decent season for Winn. The 1.04 WHIP indicates the stability the first-year big leaguer has provided in this Giants rotation. He's yet to allow more than three runs in any of his starts, and he'll enter today off a spotless five-inning showing against the San Diego Padres.

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