Reds vs Cubs Predictions, Picks, Odds: Suzuki Feasts in Matinee

The Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs will get a Memorial Day weekend series going this afternoon. 

The Cubs have improved this season but arrive today off a loss. They were blown out by New York Mets last night, and a game in which they allowed double-digit runs. The loss took away a potential sweep opportunity for Chicago. Cincy enters fresh off a 2-1 series loss to divisional rival St. Louis. They lost yesterday afternoon in a tightly contested game by a score of 2-1.

What's the Best Bet for this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs on Friday, May 26. 

Reds vs Cubs odds

Reds vs Cubs predictions

Situationally and matchup-wise, I lean to the Cubs to get it done today. 

There's a considerable edge in at least the refinement of the two pitchers, and I'd like the more talented team to bounce back from a significant loss. However, there needs to be more value. I projected this number at -145; the best market price you'll get is -165. I also don't think backing the Reds is worth my best bet, given the situational aspect of a team on travel and no rest against a team coming off a significant loss. With that in mind, I'm looking to the prop market for my best bet and have landed on Seiya Suzuki to go over 1.5 bases.

Suzuki has been one of the hottest hitters for the Cubs lately. If you're looking at implied probability for this based on what he's done over his last 10 games, you'd see a number of around -230 or so. He had a game a week ago against the Houston Astros where he recorded nine total bases and is coming into this game having gone over this prop thrice in a row. I'd like him to make it four. 

Hunter Greene will take the mound for the Reds this afternoon, and while his strikeout prowess grabs the headlines, it doesn't come without faults. 

Greene has struggled with giving up hard contact. It's certainly not uncommon for young high-velocity pitchers, and Greene hasn't been immune to it, ranking in the Bottom 20th percentile of baseball for hard-hit rate. That's the starting point for this handicap. Suzuki has the fourth-highest hard-hit rate of any Cub in the lineup today, but unlike the ones ahead of him, he doesn't swing and miss a ton. Greene relies on some chase, and Suzuki doesn't chase pitches, which will force Greene to put pitches in the zone. Once that occurs, so does the fun for Suzuki. 

Suzuki has the best batting average on the Cubs roster against the four-seam fastball, and he's seeing a pitcher that essentially has two pitches, with the four-seam making up over half. Doubling Greene's matchup issue here is that his secondary pitch also happens to be a pitch that Suzuki crushes. He's batted .407 against it this season and posted a hard-hit rate of over 50%. So, this becomes a catch-22 for Greene. Unless he wants to walk Suzuki multiple times — which is certainly possible — then he will have to throw him some pitches that he's had great success against. 

Grab Suzuki to extend his hot-hitting streak against the Reds today. If you like to be safer, there's a -150 out there at bet365 to get a hit. You could even play Suzuki to record a walk if you want to be all-in. However, this is the best value and the lone bet I'll make on him.

My best bet: Seiya Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+130)

Reds vs Cubs moneyline analysis

As I hinted earlier, I lean toward the Cubs here, but I don't have enough value to back them overall. The Cubs are below average by any definable metric regarding strikeout rate. With that in mind, they will likely not become a huge Greene strikeout victim; however, it doesn't necessarily equate to them racking up the runs.

To get after Greene, you must make a ton of solid contact and have at least an average flyball rate. Unfortunately for the Cubs, they rank at the bottom of baseball in both metrics even though they've been one of the unluckier teams in baseball in that regard. 

If I had any side here, I'd consider a sprinkle on Cubs first inning money line. You can find it around +310 to +320, which is attractive. It's anecdotal in some ways, but Greene struggles to get into games occasionally, and a lineup full of hitters that don't chase much could annoy him early on. 

Reds vs Cubs Over/Under analysis

The analysis of this total and the pitching that dictates it takes a back seat today. That's because we have some notorious Wrigley Field weather that will drastically impact the runs scored. 

For the second straight day, winds will play off Lake Michigan at around 10 to 15 mph. This is a nice thing for two pitchers who struggle with fly balls occasionally and puts us in the position of backing the Under or nothing. According to Ballparkpal.com, similar conditions have resulted in a historical reduction of runs by nearly 25%.

With that in mind, I'm just not going to touch this total. 

Reds vs Cubs game info

Starting pitchers

Hunter Greene (0-4, 4.68 ERA): Greene burst onto the scene last season with an electric fastball and strikeout rate. There was always going to be some regression, and this season, he's dealing with that. His WHIP has gone from 1.29 to a pretty rough 1.50, and his ERA has risen as well.

One of the significant hurdles for many high-velocity pitchers is dealing with the hard contact that comes with it, and that's been an issue for Greene this season. His launch angle has dropped, which in theory is good, but he's giving up a higher rate of fly balls, in the Bottom 20% of baseball in exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.

Justin Steele (6-1, 2.20 ERA): Steele is one of my favorite pitchers in baseball to bet on. Not because he's the best — although he's pretty good — but because you know what you're getting. And this season, he's been a model of consistency.

Steele has had just one start that you'd classify as "bad," it came against the Houston Astros two weeks ago. Besides that, many of his starts have looked like the one that came most recently against the Philadelphia Phillies, where he gave up zero earned runs in six innings. 

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Seiya Suzuki has gone Over 1.5 bases in seven of his last 10 games.  Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cubs

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