St. Louis Cardinals starter Sonny Gray has lost both games to his former team, and he’ll face the Cincinnati Reds for the third time this season Thursday afternoon at Busch Stadium.
My Reds vs. Cardinals predictions are calling for Gray to laugh loudest this time around. Find out why in my MLB picks for September 12 below.
Reds vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts (-138 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
The Cincinnati Reds strikeout in bunches with the fourth-highest strikeout percentage (25.0%) against RHP this season and the eighth-highest overall with a 24.8% mark over the past 30 days. Cincy also hasn’t packed much punch at the plate, with a middling .308 wOBA against righties this year.
It’s a great setup for St. Louis Cardinals hurler Sonny Gray to fill the K column with ticks again. He’s fanned six or more in 12 of his past 13 starts while averaging 92.7 pitches, and his 2.86 xFIP and 28.4% K rate are also impressive marks during the stretch. For comparison, Gray ranks fifth out of the 63 qualified starters in xFIP during the run. His 31.2% called-plus-swinging-strike rate ranks fifth, too.
The veteran righty has been a touch unlucky, though. His 4.71 ERA over his past 13 starts is way above his xFIP and the ninth-highest mark among qualified arms. His .303 BABIP and 67.1% strand rate are also eyeing statistical correction and respectively rank 19th highest and sixth lowest.
It’s a testament to Gray’s strikeout ability to consistently pile up Ks despite having such poor fortune during the run, and it’s another reason I’m not surprised to see the action coming in on Gray’s Over in this market.
Reds vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts
Cardinals moneyline
Jakob Junis Over 2.5 strikeouts
I’m fully expecting another solid outing from Gray on Thursday, and with the highlighted room for statistical correction, it could be a quiet afternoon at the dish for the Reds. On the flip side, Cincy starter Jakob Junis is still being stretched out and making just his fourth start of the season.
Junis fanned five batters across five innings and 73 pitches last time out against the New York Mets, and I’m anticipating him pitching deep enough into this afternoon's game to record three strikeouts. The Cards have a middling 22.4% K rate against righties for the year, so the matchup checks out for this low total.
Finally, this same-game parlay is trading at just +298 through DraftKings, so landing the +320 FanDuel odds provides a positive expected value of 5%.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Reds vs Cardinals odds
Reds vs Cardinals live odds
Reds vs Cardinals opening odds
- Moneyline: Cincinnati +155 | St. Louis -185
- Run line: Cincinnati +1.5 (-140) | St. Louis -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Reds vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a minor move to the Cincinnati moneyline at both Pinnacle and bet365.
- Pinnacle opened St. Louis -166 and is hanging -163 as of Thursday morning, while bet365 dropped the Cards from an opening -185 to -180. These moneyline odds also reinforce the advantage that’s available by simply shopping for the best number.
- This total hasn’t seen notable movement, either. It’s at 7.5 at both shops with the higher vig attached to the Under.
Reds vs Cardinals trend
Sonny Gray has six or more strikeouts in 12 of his past 13 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Reds vs. Cardinals.
Reds vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-12-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Ohio, Bally Sports Midwest |
| Reds starting pitcher: | Jakob Junis (4-0, 2.82 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Sonny Gray (12-9, 3.84 ERA) |
Reds vs Cardinals latest injuries
Reds vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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