The hottest team in the majors will look to make it seven in a row when the Boston Red Sox visit the Minnesota Twins to kick off a four-game set at Target Field.
Boston has completed back-to-back sweeps after losing all three games to the Baltimore Orioles in its first series of the season, while Minnesota dropped two straight to the Seattle Mariners after winning the series opener.
Will the first-place BoSox stay on fire? Find out with our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Twins on April 12, with first pitch scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET.
Red Sox vs Twins odds
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By Patrick EversonDraftKings opened Minnesota a -162 favorite Sunday evening, bottomed out at -137 and is at -143 as of 12:30 p.m. ET. Boston is attracting 65 percent of moneyline bets and 55 percent of moneyline dollars. The total opened at 9 (Over -120) and is up to 9.5 (Under -117), with 73 percent of bets and 80 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRed Sox vs Twins betting preview
Starting pitchers
Martin Perez (0-0, 5.40 ERA): Boston couldn't have asked for much more from Perez in his season debut, as the southpaw allowed three runs over five innings and struck out six in an eventual extra-innings win. More often than not, Perez is simply not going to pitch much better than that, as he's consistently been hit hard throughout his career and doesn't miss many bats. Perez had a 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP last season in his first year with the Red Sox, and that was one of the best seasons of his career. That tells you everything you need to know. He'll get a tough Twins lineup that's been hitting lefties hard, presenting the 30-year-old with a difficult assignment in his second start of 2021.
J.A. Happ (0-0, 2.25 ERA): The left-hander was solid over an abbreviated four innings in his Twins debut, allowing one run on three hits while striking out four and issuing three free passes. It was a respectable first showing for Happ considering the veteran was limited to 8 2-3 innings in spring after testing positive for COVID. He managed to get up to 89 pitches, so perhaps workload won't be a concern for him in Monday's series opener against the Red Sox. But Boston's offense will be a concern, as the Red Sox have scored an American League-leading 58 runs.
Weather
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Key injuries
Red Sox: Hunter Renfroe OF (Questionable).
Twins: Josh Donaldson 3B (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Boston's last five games as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Twins.
Moneyline pick
The Red Sox are in first place. Yes, it's still very early in the season, but Boston deserves credit for getting off to a sizzling start after coming in with much lower expectations than it is used to.
Boston was embarrassed in its first series of the year, getting swept by the lowly Orioles, but responded with consecutive sweeps and six straight victories. The Red Sox will head into Monday as the AL leader in runs scored and batting average and, if early returns are any indication, slugger J.D. Martinez still has plenty left in the tank. The veteran blasted three homers in Sunday's slugfest and has hit safely in all eight games he's played this season. Martinez will get a favorable matchup Monday against Happ, as he's demolished lefties throughout his career.
The Twins, meanwhile, took two of three from both the Milwaukee Brewers and Detroit Tigers to start the season before stumbling against the Mariners. Their offense has been great (they are third in the AL in runs and have been 25 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus statistic) but their bullpen has cost them some close games. Three of the Twins' four losses have been by one run (two of them in extras), and the other was by two runs. Minnesota's relievers have pitched well, sporting a 2.64 ERA that ranks third in the AL, but timely hitting by the opposition has burned them.
This is a good spot to grab the underdog, even if you're not sold by the Red Sox's start. They won't be facing either of Minnesota's top arms in Jose Berrios or Kenta Maeda and come in hotter than any team in baseball, facing a pitcher who, over the last three seasons, had the eighth-highest home run rate among qualified starters entering the year.
PREDICTION: Red Sox (+130)
Over/Under pick
This game will feature the majors' top two slugging, OPS, and home runs leaders in Martinez and Byron Buxton. While Martinez is doing a good job showing that we shouldn't put much stock into his .213/.291/.389, -1.0 WAR 2020 season, Buxton is trying to prove a breakout is still possible in his age-27 season.
The talent has always been there for the former No. 2-overall pick, but injuries and inconsistency at the plate have always left a lot to be desired for the toolsy center fielder. But he'll head into this series with a .481 average, 1.734 OPS, and five homers through eight games. Occupying a middle-of-the-order spot alongside power bat Nelson Cruz, Buxton will continue to have opportunities to do damage as long as he's hot. And with Perez on the mound, we don't see him cooling off on Monday.
Boston has gone Over in six of its eight games and is coming off a season-high 14-run showing. This level of offense might not hold up, but with Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers making up the heart of the order, the Red Sox will be a threat, at least offensively, every night.
It's Boston's pitching that's the bigger question mark, and the Twins have consistently been one of the majors' most potent offenses over the last few years. They should take advantage of Perez and exploit his control issues and inability to put away hitters on two strikes.
With the way both teams have been swinging it, it shouldn't be hard to hit the Over on this total.
PREDICTION: Over 9.0 (-120)
Red Sox vs Twins betting card
- Red Sox (+130)
- Over 9.0 (-120)
Picks made on 4/11/2021 at 10:20 p.m. ET
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