The Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees meet Sunday afternoon in the rubber game of their three-game series.
Righty Aaron Civale makes the start for the MLB odds underdog Rays while right-hander Luis Gil toes the slab for the host Yankees.
Can the Rays pull off the upset? Join me as I break this one down with free MLB picks and Rays vs. Yankees predictions on Sunday, April 21.
Rays vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Aaron Civale Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Tampa Bay Rays righty Aaron Civale is coming off an injury-filled 2023 but has come out firing this season and has the stuff to stymie the New York Yankees.
He's showing the same promise this season that saw the righty win a dozen games for Cleveland in 2021. That was before the injuries started creeping in — he’s always had great command because his sinker-sweeper combo is usually around the plate and particularly tough on right-handed hitters like Aaron Judge.
The Rays righty has struck out 10 per nine innings across 23 frames primarily because he’s always around the plate, serves up more groundballs than flyballs, and his low walk rate doesn’t hurt him much when he does serve up the occasional bomb.
He's going to enjoy throwing his sweeper against New York righties Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton — the trio have struck out a combined 25 times over the Yankees' last seven games and aren’t big fans of the slow, breaking stuff.
The Bombers' recent struggles at the plate are due in part to the high strikeout rates of Judge, Torres, Stanton, and Anthony Rizzo — that’s the heart of the Yankees lineup and they’ll be pressing after getting shutout on Saturday.
Civale and his sweeper have struck out Judge in five of their 14 battles and the righty boasts 14 strikeouts in 54 plate appearances against this Yankees lineup. He's throwing with confidence and the Yankees are striking out far too much.
The Yankees' typical patience at the plate won’t help as Civale doesn’t walk many and the heart of the order will face the righty at least twice as he usually pitches through the fifth.
Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Civale 5+ strikeouts
Isaas Parades to get a hit
Yandy Diaz to get a hit
Civale is kicking off our three-leg SGP and he should get some support as teammates Isaac Paredes and Yandi Diaz have been ripping the ball recently.
Yankees starter Luis Gil has a high strikeout rate but also walked seven in his last start.
Paredes and Diaz have low strikeout rates and walk rates. Paredes saw his five-game hitting streak snapped Saturday while Diaz improved his hitting streak to five games after collecting two hits in Tampa Bay's Saturday win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees live odds
Rays vs Yankees opening odds
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-185) | New York -1.5 (+154)
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +114 | New York -135
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rays vs Yankees spread and Over/Under analysis
- The odds have raised on the Yankees moneyline while the opening total remains 8.5 runs.
- The Rays average 5.5 runs per Civale start — Gil receives 4.67 runs of support per start.
- Tampa Bay is 6-1 in their last seven road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- The Under is 4-0 in the Yankees' last four at Yankee Stadium.
Rays vs Yankees trend
Aaron Civale has struck out 6+ batters in three of his last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Sunday, 4-21-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Florida, YES |
| Rays starting pitcher: | Aaron Civale (2-1, 2.74 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Luis Gil (0-1, 3.86 ERA) |
Rays vs Yankees latest injuries
Rays vs Yankees weather
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