Rays vs Red Sox Picks and Predictions: Tampa Wins Battle of the Bullpens

The Tampa Bay Rays rebounded after a couple of losses to Toronto to win three in a row over the weekend and waltz into Boston riding high. With a bullpen day in store for both teams, we think the Rays are better equipped to weather the storm.

Last Updated: Jul 4, 2022 9:31 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Taylor Walls Randy Arozarena Tampa Bay Rays MLB
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Boston Red Sox fans will be hoping for some early Fourth of July fireworks when their beloved BoSox take on the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park this afternoon.

Which team will get off on the right foot for their three-game series in this holiday matinee? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Red Sox on Monday, July 4.

Rays vs Red Sox odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Red Sox opened as consensus favorites of -127 for this contest, and have taken a bit of action since, rising to as high as -145. The opening total was 9.5, and this line has been like a roller coaster since, jumping as high as 10.5 before coming back down to 10 at the majority of sportsbooks as of this writing. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Rays vs Red Sox predictions

Picks made on 7/4/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Rays vs Red Sox game info

Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
Date: Monday, July 4, 2022
First pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
TV: MLB Network

Rays vs Red Sox betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jalen Beeks (1-1, 2.70 ERA): Beeks seems to be an “opener,” as he’s yet to work more than 2 1-3 innings in an appearance for the Rays this season. The 28-year-old southpaw has been tagged for at least a run in each of his last three efforts, authoring a 10.13 ERA. 

Austin Davis (6-1, 2.69 ERA): Davis would also appear to be serving as an “opener” for the Red Sox on Monday following the scratch of Michael Wacha (arm). He’s worked just one inning since June 18 but has generally been reliable, allowing runs in only three of his last 25 outings. 


Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Betting trend to know

The Under is 8-3 in the Rays’ last 11 games after scoring five or more runs in their previous contest. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox

Rays vs Red Sox picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The Red Sox will try to beat the Rays at their own game with an “opener” following the scratch of Michael Wacha from Monday’s start, but it’s not likely to work.

Boston fans should be holding their collective breaths when Austin Davis takes the hill, as Tampa is eighth in batting average against lefties (.256) this season. Harold Ramirez is hitting .381 against southpaws and has been red-hot to begin the month of July, going 9-for-18 at the dish with four extra-base hits, including a home run.

Also streaking at the plate for the Rays at present are Yandy Diaz — with multiple hits in six of his last eight overall — and Randy Arozarena, who’s off to a 5-for-13 (.385) with a dinger start to July. 

Jalen Beeks opens for the Rays, and manager Kevin Cash seems better equipped than counterpart Alex Cora for a Monday bullpen game. Cash can call upon former starter Matt Wisler (2.75 ERA) in relief — he hasn’t worked since Thursday — or Brooks Raley (2.21 ERA) — who didn’t play in Toronto due to being unvaccinated for COVID-19 — for bulk relief. 

Cora, however, may need to avoid using Tanner Houck (3.47 ERA) — who’s pitched back-to-back days — and Hirokazu Sawamura (2.45 ERA), who’s tossed 46 pitches in two outings over a three-day span. 

Prediction: Rays moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)

Over/Under analysis

Oddsmakers have hung a high total on the board for this tilt, but bettors shouldn’t expect things to get out of hand for these pitching staffs on Independence Day.

Some of the Rays’ better batters may be heating up at the dish, but this is still a unit that ranks 22nd in runs per game (4.11). Boston’s bullpen, which will do the bulk of the work, is seventh in the majors in ERA over the last two weeks (2.66). 

John Schreiber has been incredible in relief for Boston this year, riding a streak of 15 scoreless outings dating back to June 1 and the reliable Ryan Brasier has seven scoreless appearances over his last eight efforts. 

Tampa's bullpen could avoid facing Xander Bogaerts, who was spiked by the Cubs’ Willson Contreras during a slide on Sunday afternoon and required seven stitches on his thigh. 

Boston has plated a modest five runs over its last 20 innings, and J.D. Martinez’s recent struggles at the plate have factored into that. His batting average has dropped from .353 to .307 since June 8. 

Prediction: Under 10.5 (-115 at BetRivers)

Best bet

The Red Sox appear to be heading into this one somewhat on the ropes, and the Rays should take advantage. 

Boston’s offense is cooling off ever so slightly after playing at a torrid pace since mid-May, and their pitching plan had to be re-designed overnight following Wacha's injury. The Rays had this pegged as a “bullpen game" for days, which makes a big difference from a managerial perspective. 

Trend bettors should note that the Rays are 17-8 in their last 25 meetings with the Red Sox in Boston, while the Red Sox are 5-12 in their last 17 divisional tilts. 

PickRays moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)

MLB parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Rays vs. Red Sox picks, you could win $32.07 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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