As the race for the AL Wild Card heats up, the Houston Astros got revenge on the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 2 of their weekend set with a jaw-dropping 17-4 win on Saturday night.
Heading into Game 3 on Sunday afternoon, the Astros and Rays are both still kicking and scratching their way to the tops of their respective divisions, where they both currently sit second. Otherwise, they’ll both be in a heated battle with the rest of the AL for two of the three Wild Card spots.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Astros on Sunday, July 30.
Rays vs Astros odds
Rays vs Astros predictions
The Astros brought back memories of Crush City Saturday night with five home runs against the Rays, one of which was brought to the home crowd by Jose Altuve in the bottom of the seventh.
The 33-year-old appears to be in great form since returning to Houston’s lineup earlier this week. In his nine at-bats against Tampa, he’s got three hits, including a home run and a triple, to go with a pair of runs scored.
After last night’s shelling, and with the Rays expected to march out a mishmash of relief pitchers to get through the final game in the series on Sunday, Altuve is poised to hit a few bags.
The former AL MVP will be seeing Zack Littell, the Rays expected starting pitcher Sunday, at least once and it’s a favorable matchup. Littell is a heavy fastball pitcher (41.7% this season) with his slider (32.8%) being his second highest usage pitch.
Altuve’s been cranking against fastballs this season with a .304 average, .714 slugging percentage, and seven run value. And while he’s not hitting the slider as hard, he’s hitting it with even more consistency (.333).
Knowing the Rays will be going to the bullpen through Sunday’s game, it’s likely Altuve will see some combination of Kevin Kelly, Jason Adam, Colin Poche, Jake Diekman, Shawn Armstrong, and Pete Fairbanks.
Like Littell, Poche and Fairbanks both heavily lean on fastballs and sliders, with Diekman being predominantly a fastball pitcher and Adam going to it frequently, too. Kelly and Armstrong both throw a lot of sinkers, which Altuve’s batting .353 against.
My best bet: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
Rays vs Astros same-game parlay
Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
Astros team total Over 4.5 (+105)
Astros moneyline (-110)
It’s been a long road for the Rays this season. After looking like the team to beat in the AL through June, they’ve been a mess in July going 6-16.
Nothing has been more embarrassing throughout the slide than last night’s loss with the Astros flexing those World Series defending champ muscles.
As Tampa hopes to hold onto their three-game lead in the AL Wild Card, they’ll need a platoon of pitchers to slow down a Houston lineup that’s gone over four runs in seven of its last 14 games since the All-Star break.
Since the start of the month, the Astros are 14-9 and are nipping at the Rangers' heels, just one game back in the AL West. It hasn’t only been the All-Stars on the Stros mashing, either. Manager Dusty Baker credited others in the lineup after the Game 2 win over Tampa.
"That's why you stagger your lineup, to try to have some balance all the way through versus stacking guys that are swinging well," Baker said. "That's always a plus.”
With Altuve and two-time All-Star Yordan Alvarez back (Alvarez is batting .444 in the series), it’s looking like the Blastros all over again in H-Town.
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Rays vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Houston took Game 2 of the series in explosive fashion as heavy favorites. Most books had them between -139 and -154, and that momentum is expected to carry into Sunday afternoon.
After opening as underdogs in Game 3, with books having them hovering around +110, Houston’s now between -104 and -115 pretty much everywhere.
The Rays have fallen on their faces more often than not this month, but they can still only be had between -103 and -115 for Sunday’s duel with Houston.
The total opened at 8.5 at most books and with it moving up to 9 at some books. The Under is being offered at +105 in some places with the best odds for the Over being +100 at others.
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Trend to know
The Houston Astros have hit the moneyline in 42 of their last 70 games (+7.55 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros
Rays vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, July 30, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSUN, ATTH |
Starting pitchers
Zack Littell (0-2, 5.11 ERA): It will be just the third start of the year for the 27-year-old Littell, whom the Rays acquired off waivers from the Boston Red Sox earlier this season. Littell won’t be expected to last long on Sunday with the Rays leaning on their bullpen, but the relief pitcher has been solid in limited action in Tampa this season. In 21 1/2 innings with the Rays this season, he’s given up 11 earned runs and 28 hits to go with 24 strikeouts and is coming off two scoreless innings against the Orioles in his last outing.
Brandon Bielak (5-5, 3.62 ERA): It’s been a bit of a wild ride for the 27-year-old, who spent most of 2022 playing Triple-A ball for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys. Finally cracking the Astros rotation this season, he’s proven to be a solid starter. While not spectacular, nor an innings eater, Bielak has given up less than five hits in three of his four starts in July with just five total earned runs in that span. His fastball and changeup are his go-to pitches and they haven’t been easy to hit, with batters averaging .244 and .215 against them in 2023.
