We’ve got a fresh week of MLB action ahead of us and with 28 of 30 teams taking the field, the bases are loaded with value in the MLB player prop markets.
I slide head first into the MLB odds to bring you my favorite plays for today, including Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman taking flight against the Blue Jays, and Reynaldo Lopez staying hot when the Braves host the Cubs.
MLB props for May 15
- Rutschman Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
- Lorenzen Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
- Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs (-120 at bet365)
Picks made on 5-13 at 2:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Adley Rutschman Over 1.5 total bases
What's going on with the Toronto Blue Jays has to be even more disheartening knowing they have to look up in the standings and see the Baltimore Orioles at the top of the AL East.
The Orioles are who the Blue Jays thought they would be, but that’s just not how things have worked out and it could be apparent how far apart these teams are when they face off Monday night.
Baltimore hands the ball to ace Corbin Burnes, while Toronto counters with Jose Berrios. Burnes has been electric and everything the O’s rotation needed. And while Berrios has been solid, the writing was on the wall about possible regression that started against the Phillies last time he took the ball.
The Phillies tagged Berrios for eight runs on seven hits in just 3 2/3 innings which included a massive Bryce Harper grand slam. The start means Berrios’ expected ERA is a whopping 4.91 and is much higher than his 2.85 ERA. His opponent expected batting average of .272 also ranks in the 21st percentile.
Then there's the matter of a bunch of the Orioles owning him, none more than Adley Rutschman. The O’s catcher is having another fantastic season, hitting .304 with a .793 OPS including six home runs and 23 RBI. He also loves facing Berrios.
Rutschman is a ridiculous 10-16 with two doubles and a dinger in his career against Berrios. That works out to a .465 expected batting average and a .742 expected slugging percentage. Yet, we're still getting a solid +120 price tag on Rutschman to go Over 1.5 total bases.
Adley Rutschman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Michael Lorenzen Under 4.5 strikeouts
The reigning World Series champion Texas Rangers are currently relying on their lineup to carry them through the early portion of this season. They're hoping to get some major reinforcements to the rotation in the form of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom later in the summer.
For now, they’ll have to rely on guys like Michael Lorenzen who will take the ball tonight against the upstart Cleveland Guardians.
It's been a rocky start to Lorenzen’s tenure with the Rangers. The 2023 All-Star owns a 4.66 ERA through five starts and he’s lucky it’s not worse. His expected ERA is sitting at 5.14 while his opponent expected batting average is at .261. Those rank in the 17th and 31st percentile, respectively.
On top of that, he’s not striking out many guys either. Lorenzen has a strikeout rate of 19.2%, which is in the 29th percentile, and I’m not expecting that to improve against one of the toughest lineups to strikeout in baseball.
The Guardians lead the AL Central with a 25-16 record thanks in large part to a pesky lineup. Cleveland doesn’t hit for a ton of power but they're great at putting the bat on the ball. They rank ninth in batted balls and fourth in swing rate. That has resulted in the third-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers in baseball at just 19.4%.
A good day for Lorenzen is about 25 batters faced. With his K-rate, that works out to 4.5 strikeouts per start. He’s stayed below this number in three of his five starts, including a matchup against a similar lineup in the Royals when he had three.
Michael Lorenzen prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (-110 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Reynaldo Lopez Under 2.5 earned runs
Not that the Atlanta Braves need more things to go their way, but Reynaldo Lopez has been a great story for them so far this season. The long-time White Sox pitcher looks like he's finally realizing his potential in his first season with Atlanta.
Lopez flashed brilliance as both a starter and reliever in Chicago, but consistency was his problem. He hadn’t had a full season as a starter with a sub-4.00 ERA since 2018 but Atlanta needed starting pitching depth and he early a spot in the Braves rotation coming out of camp and the early returns have been great.
The right-hander with an average fastball of 95.2 miles per hour has allowed just six earned runs over his first six starts of the season. His expected ERA is sitting at a respectable 3.71 and is striking out more than a batter per inning.
Lopez will look to keep his hot start going when he takes the mound against the visiting Chicago Cubs at Truist Park tonight. The Cubs are also off to a solid start this season with a 24-17 record but Lopez should pose some problems.
The Cubs are a middling lineup when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers, ranking 22nd in batting average, and 16th in OPS and wRC+. They also have the 11th-highest K-rate vs. righties this season. And while it’s not a huge sample size, current Cubs with experience against Lopez are just 2-14 with six strikeouts.
Lopez’s earned runs prop is sitting at 2.5 for this matchup. He’s gone Over that number just once this season and I’m not sure the Cubs are the team to be the second.
Reynaldo Lopez prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-120 at bet365)
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