The Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins open up a vital weekend series tonight in Minneapolis.
Both of these teams will enter this series with divisional leads. The Twins have gained more traction in a relatively soft AL Central, as they lead it by 4.5 games. That's not the case for the Rangers, though, as they enter this series with the Astros nipping directly at their heels and the Mariners not far behind.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Rangers vs. Twins on Thursday, August 24.
Rangers vs Twins odds
Rangers vs Twins predictions
Things have been rough for Texas over its ongoing nine-game road trip. Given how things shake out in this series, it could be in a sticky situation next week, battling multiple teams for a Wild Card spot. Manager Bruce Bochy doesn't want to hear any of that.
"We worked hard to be in this position," he said. "We can't let it get away from us. It's time to play good baseball. I think it's a challenge for all of us to amp it up here."
I'm backing veterans like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to heed that call and I'm grabbing Texas as my best bet tonight.
Pablo Lopez will take the mound for the Twins, and that's not precisely the hurler you'd like to see when your team is struggling for offense. The Rangers have been that team, too, averaging well over five runs per game this season. Over their current six-game losing streak, Texas has averaged 2.8 runs, and that's largely buoyed by an eight-run outburst against the Brewers.
Still, the Rangers have maintained the top BABIP in baseball throughout the season, and even throughout this slump, it's remained in the Top 8. Simply put, the outburst is coming. The underlying metrics can't continue at this rate without the runs following. They've just been unlucky and can break out of that funk tonight.
Lopez has had a sensational season. He won't win the Cy Young, but he's been in the conversation for most of the season. He is not an easy pitcher to get after, and I don't expect the Rangers to explode on him, but there is enough of a window for them to get the better of him.
What makes Lopez so good is he has two great pitches of varying velocities that each create whiff rates over 30%. To succeed against him, you must hit those pitches well, and the Rangers do. However, even more importantly, you must be patient at the plate because Lopez sits in the Top 5% in chase rate. When you are overly aggressive at the plate, you can hang up any chance against the righty unless he's just having an uncharacteristically bad night. The Rangers match up well in his respective:
- The Rangers chase pitches at the 3rd lowest rate in the majors.
- They make contact at a Top-10 rate when they do chase.
- Texas has the 10th-lowest whiff rate.
When Lopez has had issues this season, it has come against teams like this. The Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Dodgers, and San Diego Padres are teams he's faced who are among the most patient in terms of chasing. He holds a 1-3 record against them and has given up five or more earned runs against two of them.
I haven't even touched on Andrew Heaney, Texas' starter, but that's because it is much less critical. This price is built upon Lopez being on the mound and his perceived dominance over the other side. Heaney has delivered five straight quality starts against teams with more impressive offensive firepower in their lineups than the Twins. If he can remain solid, this pitching matchup is much closer than the price indicates. That's what this handicap is about and why we see value in the underdog.
My best bet: Rangers moneyline (+110 at FanDuel)
Rangers vs Twins same-game parlay
Rangers moneyline
Pablo Lopez Under 6.5 strikeouts
Under 8.5
We're pairing tonight's best bet with two non-correlated plays for a solid multiplier.
I've already hit on this a bit, but the Rangers' lack of chasing pitches will cause Lopez some issues and I expect this to hurt his strikeout numbers as a result. Lopez relies on getting swings outside the zone for most of his put-out pitches. The number of chases he gets tonight will be significantly reduced against a patient Rangers lineup.
I'm finishing things up with the Under. I've barely mentioned Heaney, but he's poised to have success tonight. He's in the best run of form of the season, and the Twins simply don't hit lefties, ranking dead last in batting average against them. The Rangers can score on Lopez on the other side, but more is needed to get it Over.
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Rangers vs Twins moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The value is on the Rangers tonight. This is much closer to a coin-flip game than MLB odds perceive, and my projections say the same. There's added motivation for the Rangers in this spot, too. They've had a day off to reset and have seen their manager give them a "call to arms" in the media to perform. This team has enough veterans that they'll respond to something like that.
While the Rangers offense may have less power than, say, the Atlanta Braves, it's just as good as producing runs. It's had a stretch of a few games now where it's failed to do just that, but tonight is a solid breakout spot.
As far as the total, you know by now that I like the Under in this spot and will also take it solo for a unit over at DraftKings at -105.
Pablo Lopez is Pablo Lopez. The Rangers can have some success against him tonight, especially later in his outing, which should still be good enough to keep the total down.
Conversely, the Twins are dreadful against lefties, and it's tough to envision them hitting Heaney too well tonight. The Twins also have the fewest RBIs in the majors against lefties and own the third-lowest BABIP. My projections made this total 8, but there's value beyond that.
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Trend to know
The Rangers are 4-1 in Andrew Heaney's last five starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Twins
Rangers vs Twins game info
| Location: | Target Field, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Thursday, August 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, Bally Sports North |
Starting pitchers
Andrew Heaney (9-6, 4.27 ERA): Heaney is one of the most average major league pitchers, but consistency is one thing you can't knock out. Only four of his 24 starts this season have seen the lefty allow more than four earned runs, and one of those came in the season opener. Like his counterpart, Heaney is a chase-reliant pitcher with a number that places him in the Top 30% of the league. He'll enter this one off a great showing against the Miami Marlins, where he held them scoreless over five innings.
Pablo Lopez (9-6, 3.51 ERA): Lopez was in Cy Young contention for a decent portion of the season. That was until he began to lose it in July, which included surrendering seven earned runs to the Athletics. He's followed things up nicely, though. August has been spectacular with an ERA of 0.36 across 25 innings. Lopez also has best expected ERAs of any pitcher overall. He comes into this one off a spotless six-inning appearance against the Pirates.
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