Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Opportunity Knocks for Pivetta

Prop bet #1: All good things...

It has to come to an end at some point. Why not today? William Contreras enters this one riding a 15-game hitting streak for the carefree Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew wrapped up the division recently and are simply playing to avoid rust at this point. Enter the reeling Chicago Cubs, who desperately need a win to make the postseason and send a veteran to the mound. I like this spot.

You couldn’t imagine a better situational spot to back Kyle Hendricks on the mound than this one. The Cubs are barely hanging on to postseason hopes, and if they don’t find a win tonight, they may be done. As far as things relate to this matchup, in particular, Contreras is going to see a heavy amount of breaking balls. That’s what things look like for Hendricks in the back end of his career, as those pitches make up over 75% of his arsenal.

Why do I like this matchup for him? Expected regression is a factor, as well as Contreras' struggles against breaking ball pitchers. 

He enters this game with a negative run value against the curveball and an even worse ranking against the sinker. He’s one of the few players in the Brewers lineup with these struggles, which should increase the likelihood he’s pinch-hit for. At the price point, this offers some nice value.

William Contreras prop: Not to get a hit (+190)

Prop bet #2: Florial blossoms

While there’s juice here, this is one of my favorite bets on the board. I priced it at -188, which gives us a considerable edge. 

Estevan Florial has made the most of his late-season playing time for the Yankees, and he’s done it at the plate. He’s gotten a hit in eight of his last 10 games and four of his previous five games. Overall, I love the matchup with him against a Royals team playing for nothing. K.C. sends Jordan Lyles to the mound, and he’s been hit hard a decent amount this season. What’s noteworthy in this matchup is his barrel rate, as it sits in the Bottom 18% of baseball. 

Florial should see a decent amount of fastball looks tonight, and over the last 20 games, he’s led the Yankees in slugging against that pitch while ranking third in batting average against it. I’ll happily take Florial to continue doing what he’s done lately against a lousy pitcher. 

Estevan Florial prop: To get a hit (-165)

Prop bet #3: Nick of time

Did you see the Orioles locker room last night? The club won the AL East for the first time since 2014, and it partied into the wee hours. There is no analytics or science to back here, but you’d have to imagine the O's come out flat at the plate. Let’s take advantage of that. 

Of course, there are other reasons to like this prop, too. Red Sox starter Nick Pivetta soared over this number the last time he saw Baltimore with nine Ks. In addition to that, he’s been boiling to end the season, going over this number in three consecutive games. Pivetta will finish the season in the Top 10% of baseball in K-rate. It’s gone a bit unnoticed because he hasn’t played an entire season, but he’s been one of the better strikeout players in the league over the last month.

Baltimore is swinging more lately, too. In the previous two weeks, we’ve seen a 5% chase rate increase in its at-bats. 

Tonight’s matchup for Pivetta is solid, but the situational aspect of this one trumps all. I expect a flat Orioles team tonight, and you could hardly blame them. I priced this at -155 and would play it all the way there.

Nick Pivetta prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-140)