After a hot dog-filled Fourth of July, we’re going to need some Pepto Bismol and some winners in the MLB prop betting market to close out this holiday long weekend with a good feeling.
So, we turn our attention to a pair of red-hot National League starters going up against a couple of slumping offenses as Kevin Gausman faces the Cardinals and Brandon Woodruff takes on the Mets.
We break down and pick these games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Monday, July 5.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Kevin Gausman Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120)
You know your offense is struggling when you can only put up two runs in three of four games at Coors Field, but that’s exactly what the St. Louis Cardinals did over the weekend. Things won’t get easier when they open a three-game series in San Francisco against Kevin Gausman and the National League West-leading Giants.
The Cardinals' struggles haven’t been a recent discovery, as they've scored three runs or fewer 14 times in their last 19 games and, as a result, rank 27th in scoring, 26th in batting average and 28th in OPS.
Now, the Cards go up against the resurgent Gausman. The right-hander is pitching to a 1.68 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and a 2.67 FIP. He is also limiting opponents to a .158 batting average this season. On top of that, Gausman hasn’t allowed more than four hits in a start since May 25th and has allowed four hits or fewer 11 times in his sixteen starts this season.
When you consider the matchup with the slumping Cards, Gausman is giving us good value on his hits allowed prop.
Brandon Woodruff Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+160)
Milwaukee Brewers starter Brandon Woodruff is the kind of guy who gets overlooked because of the existence of Jacob deGrom. Woodruff is having an outstanding season for Milwaukee, pitching to a 1.87 ERA, an 0.78 WHIP, and a 2.79 FIP. The right-hander will look to keep rolling as he and the Brewers visit the New York Mets.
Woodruff has also been an innings-eater for the Brew Crew this season, averaging nearly 6.5 innings per start. That includes recording 20 or more outs in seven of his last 10 starts. Now, he faces a Mets lineup that is one of the worst in baseball. New York ranks 29th in scoring, while at the same time ranking 21st in batting average and 26th in OPS when facing right-handed pitchers this season.
When you consider the fact that Woodruff is limiting opponents to a .156 batting average this season, there is no reason to think he won’t be able to work deep into this game.
Braves -0.5 Five-Inning Runline (-135)
Atlanta Braves starter Max Fried has been mostly excellent since coming back from an early-season injury and looks much more like the guy who finished fifth in Cy Young voting last season. The lefty has a 2.61 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, and is limiting opponents to .203 batting average in nine starts since May 5.
That includes seven innings of work back on May 23 where he allowed just one run on four hits against the same Pittsburgh Pirates team he will go up against tonight, in what ended in an eventual 7-1 Braves victory.
The Pirates are still the Pirates, ranking dead last in scoring, OPS, and home runs this season while ranking 27th in batting average. That makes Fried and the Braves a good bet to have the lead through five innings in this one.
MLB betting card for July 5
- Kevin Gausman Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (+120)
- Brandon Woodruff Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+160)
- Braves -0.5 Five-Inning Runline (-135)
Picks made on 7/5/2021 at 11:45 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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